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miamizsun

miamizsun Avatar

Location: (3283.1 Miles SE of RP)
Gender: Male


Posted: Aug 24, 2022 - 6:04am

state approved russian media channel is right out in the open with their messaging...


 

kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Aug 23, 2022 - 7:19pm

 Lazy8 wrote:
I'm almost certain you just tried to say something.
 
Nope.  Error on my part.  Nothing to see.
miamizsun

miamizsun Avatar

Location: (3283.1 Miles SE of RP)
Gender: Male


Posted: Aug 23, 2022 - 6:28pm

meanwhile on the russian agitprop channel...


westslope

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Location: BC sage brush steppe


Posted: Aug 23, 2022 - 5:34pm

 Red_Dragon wrote:
Well, Pavel Filatyev appears to not understand the rationale.  Please, please:  understanding and agreeing are separate notions.  They are not the same.  Many rich country soldiers have a rather elementary or poor understanding of national security and strategic considerations.   Their opinions and attitudes still matter.

Then we have a number of reports that Russian soldiers were given little information and rationale leading up to the invasion.   That hints at the notion that Russia's invasion was somewhat spontaneous but if you back up, that is clearly not the case.

Pavel Filatyev's description suggests more than a few Russian soldiers were caught off guard by the often hostile reception by civilians and the determined defensive fire by Ukrainian forces, militia and other irregulars.  Disillusioned soldiers will eventually weigh heavily on Russia's willingness to continue this conflict and settle in the for the long haul.

This war may currently enjoy the support of most Russians.  That could erode going forward.   I don't have a clear picture but we already observe some sub-cultural schisms in Russian society in regards to supporting the Ukraine invasion.

That said, it is important to recognize several key factors: 

- for the Russian old guard and security establishment, this is an existential conflict.  See Russian history.

- this war has the reasonably solid support of Russian political and security elites.    For the moment.

- Russia has been preparing for this possibility for a long time.

- little strategic planning went into according the Baltic states and Poland NATO membership; similarly little strategic planning went into choices regarding economic and financial sanctions levied at Russia and its citizens.  These sanctions have more than likely already driven most European economies and the US economy into recession.  

- US-lead NATO managed to deftly revive the non-aligned movement.  BRICS could soon become BRICSA.   Trade patterns are and will continue to shift.   BRICSA member countries do not mean the USA or its citizens harm; they simply do not want to be harmed by US policy.  Naturally, US hegemony will decline at an accelerated pace.

- Russia has the capacity to engage US-lead NATO through proxy nation Ukraine for longer than the Ukraine, the US and US-ally nations can stand it.

- Ukraine has already paid an enormous price and will continue to pay an astronomical price in human lives and welfare if this conflict drags.

- Much of Europe is going into a sharp recession and may have to ration heating and lighting this coming winter. The USA is likely already in recession though optimistically it should not be deep or long. This not a good time to be poor on fixed income or a low-income earner in the USA.

- US economic and financial sanctions in the post-war period have been remarkably ineffective and costly.  Other nations can reasonably anticipate that the US will continue to levy harsh sanctions against non-allied nations because they politically sell in the USA despite the collective costs and political risks.

- Chair Powell et al are still acting Dovish.  That simply means even more pain and suffering for America's most vulnerable slightly farther down the road.  



Long-term solution?

So how do we put this costly and extremely dangerous conflict behind us?   

I have no prior preferences for Ukraine other than a deep sadness for its long far too often bloody career.  I see it as a dog's breakfast of a country where people do not play particularly well together.  Ukraine makes me think of a few Black African countries where European colonial powers carved up tribal  and pre-colonial 'national' groups into separate nation states and lumped incompatible others together.  That is not necessarily the best metaphor.  

Nigeria, for example, verges on a failed state.  Ukraine is poor and not a great place to invest (coincidence?) but it was a functioning nation state that allowed itself to be lulled into a false sense of security by not entirely credible assurances from the US leaders.  Ex:  Vietnam, Kurds, Afghanistan, Somalia. 

Viewing American 'commitments' as iron-clad is fraught with risk. It is important to recognize how special interests and myopic political considerations drive US foreign policy.  Or risk becoming State Dept. roadkill.


Taking shape?

I believe we already know the rough shape of a lasting and durable settlement though the appetite for prolonging the conflict appears to be still quite high.  The eastern Russian ethnic-dominated regions will become independent and autonomous protectorates of Russia.  Ukraine, the US and NATO will agree to refraining from according Ukraine NATO membership.  

There might be agreements restricting weapons assistance and deployment in both Ukraine and the eastern Russian-ethnic buffer zone.   A negotiated partial disarmament.  

In the best outcome, economic and financial relations are normalized relatively quickly.  Europe would be a colossal fool to not continue buying natural gas and other forms of energy and commodities from Russia.    

Canada, USA, Australia and several Gulf of Persia countries would all benefit enormously if Europe stopped buying Russian natural gas.  At the same time, a number of politically sensitive commodity prices would continue to stay high — oil, fertilizer, grains — if this conflict drags.  BRICSA would take on greater material importance.



Red_Dragon

Red_Dragon Avatar

Location: Gilead


Posted: Aug 23, 2022 - 4:21pm

 Lazy8 wrote:

I'm almost certain you just tried to say something.




Lazy8

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Location: The Gallatin Valley of Montana
Gender: Male


Posted: Aug 23, 2022 - 2:15pm

 kurtster wrote:

I'm almost certain you just tried to say something.
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Aug 23, 2022 - 8:17am

Red_Dragon

Red_Dragon Avatar

Location: Gilead


Posted: Aug 23, 2022 - 8:02am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:


..except that now they genuinely seem shit-scared this latest misadventure is going badly badly wrong for them.


It's starting to seem so, anyway.
NoEnzLefttoSplit

NoEnzLefttoSplit Avatar

Gender: Male


Posted: Aug 23, 2022 - 7:52am

 Red_Dragon wrote:


same as it ever was


..except that now they genuinely seem shit-scared this latest misadventure is going badly badly wrong for them.
Red_Dragon

Red_Dragon Avatar

Location: Gilead


Posted: Aug 23, 2022 - 7:42am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

years ago I remember reading a US presidential advisor stating that to understand the Cold War you had to understand that both superpowers were using the threat of an external enemy to control their own domestic populations... looks like this hasn't changed much:




same as it ever was
NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Gender: Male


Posted: Aug 23, 2022 - 7:32am

years ago I remember reading a US presidential advisor stating that to understand the Cold War you had to understand that both superpowers were using the threat of an external enemy to control their own domestic populations... looks like this hasn't changed much:


Red_Dragon

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Location: Gilead


Posted: Aug 22, 2022 - 6:13pm

'All of it is a lie': Russian paratrooper condemns his country's war in Ukraine
R_P

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Gender: Male


Posted: Aug 20, 2022 - 5:41pm

Daughter of Putin Propagandist Killed in Car Bomb Outside Moscow, Reports Say
miamizsun

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Location: (3283.1 Miles SE of RP)
Gender: Male


Posted: Aug 17, 2022 - 5:44am


NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Gender: Male


Posted: Aug 11, 2022 - 7:52am

 Red_Dragon wrote: 
Another goodwill gesture.

Red_Dragon

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Location: Gilead


Posted: Aug 11, 2022 - 6:58am

Russia struggles to replenish its troops in Ukraine
Steely_D

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Location: The foot of Mount Belzoni
Gender: Male


Posted: Jul 29, 2022 - 9:33am

Arnie sends a message

miamizsun

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Location: (3283.1 Miles SE of RP)
Gender: Male


Posted: Jul 29, 2022 - 8:54am

Steely_D

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Location: The foot of Mount Belzoni
Gender: Male


Posted: Jul 28, 2022 - 12:11pm

 thisbody wrote:



No thanks. Had four years of hearing from Putin's lapdog.
thisbody

thisbody Avatar

Location: out of space
Gender: Male


Posted: Jul 28, 2022 - 10:32am


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