One, that Russia faces outright defeat in Ukraine. Incompetent or not, Russia still has vast military resources and can hang on a good long while in a war of attrition. It took them 10 years and the collapse of the Soviet Union to admit defeat in Afghanistan. Putin is also probably calling in favors from allies. Nobody makes a barrel bomb like the Syrian air force, and Iran can cover their backs if the Syrian military is called in to shore up Russian troops.
Second, that Putin wouldn't settle for seizing parts of Ukraine and declaring victory. If he can reduce enough of Ukraine to rubble and force them to cede territory (as Stalin did with Finland at the end of the Continuation War) then he can say he meant to do that all along. Even if such an arrangement isn't formalized the reality on the ground eventually becomes the accepted reality, regardless of how many other countries recognize the shift in borders in the short term. Russia has oil and gas. Putin can afford to be patient. His grip on power and the Russian media is firm.
But he's not a young man. He's almost 70. It's not clear who with succeed hm, as he has been pretty ruthless at eliminating rivals to power. Because of that if he were to be ousted in a coup or something it's not at all clear that the Russian Federation survives. It could fracture along any number of ethnic and cultural fault lines. Ukraine isn't the only part of the former soviet empire kept in the Russian orbit solely by fear.
We're in for a turbulent decade or so.
It is an opinion piece, and now you've given yours. Bringing Syrians in to help would be a huge signal of weakness at home and abroad. I think Putin's hold on power is threadbare at best and getting worse.
One, that Russia faces outright defeat in Ukraine. Incompetent or not, Russia still has vast military resources and can hang on a good long while in a war of attrition. It took them 10 years and the collapse of the Soviet Union to admit defeat in Afghanistan. Putin is also probably calling in favors from allies. Nobody makes a barrel bomb like the Syrian air force, and Iran can cover their backs if the Syrian military is called in to shore up Russian troops.
Second, that Putin wouldn't settle for seizing parts of Ukraine and declaring victory. If he can reduce enough of Ukraine to rubble and force them to cede territory (as Stalin did with Finland at the end of the Continuation War) then he can say he meant to do that all along. Even if such an arrangement isn't formalized the reality on the ground eventually becomes the accepted reality, regardless of how many other countries recognize the shift in borders in the short term. Russia has oil and gas. Putin can afford to be patient. His grip on power and the Russian media is firm.
But he's not a young man. He's almost 70. It's not clear who with succeed hm, as he has been pretty ruthless at eliminating rivals to power. Because of that if he were to be ousted in a coup or something it's not at all clear that the Russian Federation survives. It could fracture along any number of ethnic and cultural fault lines. Ukraine isn't the only part of the former soviet empire kept in the Russian orbit solely by fear.
I wonder how long it is going to take for the Russian military to finally get tired of this incompetent political leadership and finally turn on their master(s).
I would bet you see more of a passive-aggressive approach, so as to not draw the attention/ire/weaponry of their superiors.
