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Index » Regional/Local » Europe » Ukraine Page: 1, 2, 3 ... 109, 110, 111  Next
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R_P

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Posted: Apr 15, 2024 - 2:11pm

Pentagon: US arms industry struggling to keep up with China (20231202)
A draft copy of the new National Defense Industrial Strategy says American companies can’t build weapons fast enough to meet global demand.
As it stands now, the U.S. defense industrial base “does not possess the capacity, capability, responsiveness, or resilience required to satisfy the full range of military production needs at speed and scale,” according to a draft version of the report, obtained by POLITICO.

The document, dated Nov. 27, adds that “just as significantly, the traditional defense contractors in the would be challenged to respond to modern conflict at the velocity, scale, and flexibility necessary to meet the dynamic requirements of a major modern conflict.”

Lazy8

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Location: The Gallatin Valley of Montana
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Posted: Apr 15, 2024 - 1:45pm

 kurtster wrote:

Fundamentally, we lack the capacity to manufacture the amount of weapons Ukraine needs us to supply to win the war.
Consider our ability to produce 155-millimeter artillery shells. Last year, Ukraine’s then defense minister assessed that their base line requirement for these shells is over four million per year, but said they could fire up to seven million if that many were available. Since the start of the conflict, the United States has gone to great lengths to ramp up production of 155-millimeter shells. We’ve roughly doubled our capacity and can now produce 360,000 per year — less than a tenth of what Ukraine says it needs. The administration’s goal is to get this to 1.2 million — 30 percent of what’s needed — by the end of 2025. This would cost the American taxpayers dearly while yielding an unpleasantly familiar result: failure abroad.

The story is the same when we look at other munitions. Take the Patriot missile system — our premier air defense weapon. It’s of such importance in this war that Ukraine’s foreign minister has specifically demanded them. That’s because in March alone, Russia reportedly launched over 3,000 guided aerial bombs, 600 drones and 400 missiles at Ukraine. To fend off these attacks, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and others have indicated they need thousands of Patriot interceptors per year. The problem is this: The United States only manufactures 550 every year. If we pass the supplemental aid package currently being considered in Congress, we could potentially increase annual production to 650, but that’s still less than a third of what Ukraine requires.

These weapons are not only needed by Ukraine. If China were to set its sights on Taiwan, the Patriot missile system would be critical to its defense. In fact, the United States has promised to send Taiwan nearly $900 million worth of Patriot missiles, but delivery of those weapons and other essential resources has been severely delayed, partly because of shortages caused by the war.


Yeah, the math does not add up.  It is a war of attrition and the US cannot provide what is needed to win.

Would have been a whole different situation if Biden had let Poland give their MIG's to Ukraine back in the beginning.  And how are those F-16's in Ukraine doing over there ?  They have been forth coming for over a year now.  Talk, talk, talk ...  thanks, Joe.  Maybe if they needed help with abortions they would get that sooner than F -16's.

If the US could not provide the munitions necessary for Ukraine to kick Russia out of Ukraine then the US couldn't defend itself against its most hostile adversary either. You'd be making an excellent argument for enlarging the US military production base if it were true.

Which it isn't. Not remotely. See below.

The US has no say in whether Poland gives its MiG-29s to Ukraine. It didn't supply them in the first place so has no contractual leverage over them. Germany did—it sold Poland some East German leftovers after reunification—but it quickly acquiesced to sending 5 of them to Ukraine, on top of the 8 they'd already sent.

You may be referring to a deal Poland proposed in 2022 (shortly after the latest phase of the invasion began) to run a donation thru the US. That didn't happen, but since then Poland has donated the planes anyway.

So about US defense industrial capacity...

rgio

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Location: West Jersey
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Posted: Apr 15, 2024 - 10:48am

 kurtster wrote:
Yeah, the math does not add up.  It is a war of attrition and the US cannot provide what is needed to win.

When you stop sending support, you can't be surprised when the numbers turn against you.  Here's a rebuttal that says as much.

Comrade Vance, Comrade Johnson, and Comrade Trump are arguably the best assets in Russian history.

VV

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Posted: Apr 15, 2024 - 10:47am

 kurtster wrote:
Yeah, the math does not add up.  It is a war of attrition and the US cannot provide what is needed to win.

Would have been a whole different situation if Biden had let Poland give their MIG's to Ukraine back in the beginning.  And how are those F-16's in Ukraine doing over there ?  They have been forth coming for over a year now.  Talk, talk, talk ...  thanks, Joe.  Maybe if they needed help with abortions they would get that sooner than F -16's.

And what would your great orange blob have come up with? He wants to choke off any aid... period. Zelenski recently asked to meet with him to discuss Trump's plan to end the war. Trump declined. Presumably, his plan to end the war would be to stop all aid to Ukraine and suggest to Ukraine to give Putin whatever it is that he wants. 
  
And don't pivot to "Well if Trump was president" Russia would not have invaded" as that might be even a bigger lie than the stolen election. Trump was (and continues to be) Putin's lap-dog as he can't even begin to condemn Putin's role in this conflict.


kurtster

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Location: where fear is not a virtue
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Posted: Apr 15, 2024 - 9:53am

 R_P wrote:
J.D. Vance: The Math on Ukraine Doesn’t Add Up
Ukraine needs more men than it can field, even with draconian conscription policies. And it needs more material than the United States can provide.
 

Fundamentally, we lack the capacity to manufacture the amount of weapons Ukraine needs us to supply to win the war.
Consider our ability to produce 155-millimeter artillery shells. Last year, Ukraine’s then defense minister assessed that their base line requirement for these shells is over four million per year, but said they could fire up to seven million if that many were available. Since the start of the conflict, the United States has gone to great lengths to ramp up production of 155-millimeter shells. We’ve roughly doubled our capacity and can now produce 360,000 per year — less than a tenth of what Ukraine says it needs. The administration’s goal is to get this to 1.2 million — 30 percent of what’s needed — by the end of 2025. This would cost the American taxpayers dearly while yielding an unpleasantly familiar result: failure abroad.

The story is the same when we look at other munitions. Take the Patriot missile system — our premier air defense weapon. It’s of such importance in this war that Ukraine’s foreign minister has specifically demanded them. That’s because in March alone, Russia reportedly launched over 3,000 guided aerial bombs, 600 drones and 400 missiles at Ukraine. To fend off these attacks, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and others have indicated they need thousands of Patriot interceptors per year. The problem is this: The United States only manufactures 550 every year. If we pass the supplemental aid package currently being considered in Congress, we could potentially increase annual production to 650, but that’s still less than a third of what Ukraine requires.

These weapons are not only needed by Ukraine. If China were to set its sights on Taiwan, the Patriot missile system would be critical to its defense. In fact, the United States has promised to send Taiwan nearly $900 million worth of Patriot missiles, but delivery of those weapons and other essential resources has been severely delayed, partly because of shortages caused by the war.


Yeah, the math does not add up.  It is a war of attrition and the US cannot provide what is needed to win.

Would have been a whole different situation if Biden had let Poland give their MIG's to Ukraine back in the beginning.  And how are those F-16's in Ukraine doing over there ?  They have been forth coming for over a year now.  Talk, talk, talk ...  thanks, Joe.  Maybe if they needed help with abortions they would get that sooner than F -16's.
R_P

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Posted: Apr 15, 2024 - 9:05am

J.D. Vance: The Math on Ukraine Doesn’t Add Up
Ukraine needs more men than it can field, even with draconian conscription policies. And it needs more material than the United States can provide.
NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Posted: Apr 14, 2024 - 12:08am

Feng Yujun, one of the China's leading Russianists and a professor at Peking University: Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine – The Economist

Four reasons why Russian Federation will lose to Ukraine, according to Feng Yujun:
  • The first is the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary.
  • The second is international support for Ukraine, which, though recently falling short of the country’s expectations, remains broad.
  • The third factor is the nature of modern warfare, a contest that turns on a combination of industrial might and command, control, communications and intelligence systems. One reason Russia has struggled in this war is that it is yet to recover from the dramatic deindustrialisation it suffered after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
  • The final factor is information. When it comes to decision-making, Vladimir Putin is trapped in an information cocoon, thanks to his having been in power so long. The Russian president and his national-security team lack access to accurate intelligence. The system they operate lacks an efficient mechanism for correcting errors. Their Ukrainian counterparts are more flexible and effective.

His conclusion is as follows:

Russia will be forced to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.

Russia's nuclear capability is no guarantee of success. Feng Yujun gives the example of the United States, which left Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan with no less nuclear potential than the Russian Federation has today.

Kyiv has proven that Moscow is not invincible, so a ceasefire under the "Korean" scenario is ruled out.

The war is a turning-point for Russia. It has consigned Putin’s regime to broad international isolation. He has also had to deal with difficult domestic political undercurrents, from the rebellion by the mercenaries of the Wagner Group and other pockets of the military — for instance in Belgorod — to ethnic tensions in several Russian regions and the recent terrorist attack in Moscow. These show that political risk in Russia is very high. Mr Putin may recently have been re-elected, but he faces all kinds of possible black-swan events.

After the war, Ukraine will have the chance join both the EU and NATO, while Russia will lose its former Soviet republics because they see Putin's aggression there as a threat to their sovereignty and territorial integrity.

According to Feng Yujun, the war, meanwhile, has made Europe wake up to the enormous threat that Russia’s military aggression poses to the continent’s security and the international order, bringing post-cold-war EU-Russia detente to an end. Many European countries have given up their illusions about Mr Putin’s Russia.

Source: https://economist.com/by-invitation/2024/04/11/russia-is-sure-to-lose-in-ukraine-reckons-a-chinese-expert-on-russia
NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Posted: Apr 7, 2024 - 1:35am

 R_P wrote:
The Looming Ukraine Debacle
There is indeed a serious risk that, rather than the West teaching Russia a lesson and putting Putin in his place, the opposite may occur.


Didn't know you were such a fan of religious zealotry Richard!



R_P

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Posted: Apr 6, 2024 - 10:21pm

The Looming Ukraine Debacle
There is indeed a serious risk that, rather than the West teaching Russia a lesson and putting Putin in his place, the opposite may occur.
Matthew Blackburn, The National Interest
R_P

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Posted: Apr 5, 2024 - 10:13pm

 Lazy8 wrote:
But now now the CIA is a credible source? Good to know.

You can't be wrong 100% of the time and neither can the CIA. It's that gray thing again.

CIA’s Burns: US Would Make Mistake of 'Historic Proportions' to Abandon Ukraine  (true or false?)
Lazy8

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Location: The Gallatin Valley of Montana
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 5, 2024 - 2:50pm

 R_P wrote:
I'm guessing Campbell uses, perhaps superior, CIA data. As for the Pentagon/allies they've been in rose-coloured glasses mode from the start. Still are.

Of course he is, because that's how you inform off-the-cuff remarks at conferences.

But now now the CIA is a credible source? Good to know.

That's for the Russians to decide, not US/Euro/NATO bloviators.

Put in a good word, comrade. But avoid tall buildings with windows.
R_P

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Posted: Apr 5, 2024 - 12:26pm

Ukraine stokes anti-immigrant tensions in Russia
Agents are conducting ‘psyops’ after the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack to destabilise Russian society
R_P

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Posted: Apr 5, 2024 - 11:52am

 Lazy8 wrote:
From the same article: "Campbell’s assessment seems to contradict those of the Pentagon and America’s allies in Europe."

So this one dude, speaking at a conference on an entirely different topic, is contradicting people who ought to know—including people much closer to the situation. But he says something appealing to you, so he's credible.

Sure, sounds legit.

I'm guessing Campbell uses, perhaps superior, CIA data. As for the Pentagon/allies they've been in rose-coloured glasses mode from the start. Still are.

 Lazy8 wrote:
Maybe Russia should reconstitute its political leadership instead.

That's for the Russians to decide, not US/Euro/NATO bloviators.
Lazy8

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Location: The Gallatin Valley of Montana
Gender: Male


Posted: Apr 5, 2024 - 11:42am

 R_P wrote:
From the same article: "Campbell’s assessment seems to contradict those of the Pentagon and America’s allies in Europe."

So this one dude, speaking at a conference on an entirely different topic, is contradicting people who ought to know—including people much closer to the situation. But he says something appealing to you, so he's credible.

Sure, sounds legit.

But let's say he's right, and the Russian military has recovered from the absurdly high attrition its brute-force tactics have cost it. Then...what? The western world should stop supporting Ukraine so they're forced to submit to an imperialist conquest of their country? Or what?

That mighty military, at full strength, bogged down trying to crush an adversary many times weaker than itself. It is feeding its young men and resources into a meat grinder, gaining a few meters a day. It controls about 18% of Ukraine's land mass, down from 27% at peak occupation.

Maybe Russia should reconstitute its political leadership instead.
miamizsun

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Posted: Apr 5, 2024 - 5:32am


miamizsun

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Posted: Apr 5, 2024 - 5:30am

 Lazy8 wrote:

So Elon Muxk, capitalist running dog gadfly who constantly talks out his ass about topics he doesn't understand and is wrong about everything, is now credible?


yes! because tankie troll patrol have their marching orders
NoEnzLefttoSplit

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Posted: Apr 5, 2024 - 12:45am


R_P

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Posted: Apr 4, 2024 - 3:02pm

Russian military ‘almost completely reconstituted,’ US official says
R_P

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Posted: Apr 3, 2024 - 4:41pm

Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing
According to high-ranking Ukrainian officers, the military picture is grim and Russian generals could find success wherever they decide to focus their upcoming offensive.
With a history of urging Ukraine to agree to territorial concessions — and his opposition to the $60 billion U.S. military aid package snarled on Capitol Hill amid partisan wrangling — Musk isn’t Ukraine’s favorite commentator, to say the least. And his remarks received predictable pushback.

But the billionaire entrepreneur’s forecast isn’t actually all that different from the dire warnings Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made in the last few days. According to Zelenskyy, unless the stalled multibillion-dollar package is approved soon, his forces will have to “go back, retreat, step by step, in small steps.” He also warned that some major cities could be at risk of falling.

Obviously, Zelenskyy’s warnings are part of a broad diplomatic effort to free up the military aid his forces so desperately need and have been short of for months — everything from 155-millimeter artillery shells to Patriot air-defense systems and drones. But the sad truth is that even if the package is approved by the U.S. Congress, a massive resupply may not be enough to prevent a major battlefield upset. (...)

And according to high-ranking Ukrainian military officers who served under General Valery Zaluzhny — the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces until he was replaced in February — the military picture is grim.

The officers said there’s a great risk of the front lines collapsing wherever Russian generals decide to focus their offensive. Moreover, thanks to a much greater weight in numbers and the guided aerial bombs that have been smashing Ukrainian positions for weeks now, Russia will likely be able to “penetrate the front line and to crash it in some parts,” they said. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak freely.

“There’s nothing that can help Ukraine now because there are no serious technologies able to compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops Russia is likely to hurl at us. We don’t have those technologies, and the West doesn’t have them as well in sufficient numbers,” one of the top-ranking military sources told POLITICO.

R_P

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Posted: Apr 2, 2024 - 10:51am

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
Good point. High time to make Russia pay reparations for the immense damage it has caused.

Those used to come after some country lost a war. For now it just sounds like the West engaging in more piracy/theft. Another can of worms that might boomerang as well (like sanctions).
Despite the structural challenges it faces, and notwithstanding the
legally questionable freezing of $300bn (or around half) of its foreign
exchange reserves, Russia is anything but short of liquidity.
Maybe John Yoo is still available to help with some legalese.
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