Those countries/companies that come up with nifty new solutions will be the ones to succeed (could very well be China at this point). Those that stick their head in the sand will end up on the wrong side of history.
Yeah, Drill, Baby, Drill was crippling Putin and the other bad guys. But you're right, that was Trump and not the repubs. Trump was playing hardball grabbing Putin by the nads doing that. Putin and Iran were both suffering simply by our energy dominance under Trump. Who turned that all around again ?
The true base of American power is built on reliable, cheap and the efficient use of energy. The primary source of that energy is still "fossil" fuels which are being made illegal to use in the pursuit of the Green Agenda or what ever you are calling it these days.
That is an interesting perspective. I would say that Putin has actually accelerated the energy transformation in Europe and, by attacking our ideals and institutions, has done the very thing to erode his economic base (of exporting oil and gas).
Massive investment is going on here to reduce dependence on oil & gas and tbh I am actually very surprised at the speed of the transition. If this goes on, oil and gas will be increasingly redundant in the future.
And it is not just the supply side that is changing. Consumers, especially the young urban demographic are eschewing high-energy burners in favour of more sustainable pursuits. Most of the ones I know don't want to own a car, are increasingly vegetarian and are looking for more local off-grid pursuits for their free time. The days of flying off for exotic holidays five times a year (mea culpa) or cruise ships (mea not culpa on that one) are over.
edit: btw I just researched domestic oil and gas production in the US. It hit an all-time high in 2023, so what particular loss of energy dominance under Biden are you talking about?
edit No. 2: given this is the Ukraine thread, here's my take on Putin and global energy markets:
⢠Putin is a mafia-type mob-ruler who happens to be in control of the largest bit of real estate in the world that has a wealth of natural resources.
⢠But, being a mob ruler, corruption is rife and given the size of its country, population, skills and wealth of natural resources, Russia is a massive failure in terms of local production. Very few of its products are competitive on the global market (and it knows it). Therefore Russia is reliant on exporting oil and gas for its trade balance (to pay for all those fancy imports from the US, Europe and China) and to give its population the impression it is not actually a failed state.
⢠Consequently, it is in Russia's interest to support fossil-fuel-reliant policies in other countries
⢠Russia has the means and has also demonstrated its success at destabilising other governments to prop up conservative regimes that are hostile to green technologies
To me, it is clear as day that supporting Trump and supporting the AGW lobby fits this pattern to a tee.
It also explains a lot of the sympathy for Russia among conservatives in the US. Generally, the pro-Trump, AGW crowd don't want to change their habits and are bucking at being forced to change, which is understandable, but IMO this is fundamentally flawed as a viable business concept going forward. Those countries/companies that come up with nifty new solutions will be the ones to succeed (could very well be China at this point). Those that stick their head in the sand will end up on the wrong side of history.
Who'd have imagined 20 years ago that the key to dismantling American power would be electing Republicans, and that they would have a significant faction supporting a Russian dictator?
Yeah, Drill, Baby, Drill was crippling Putin and the other bad guys. But you're right, that was Trump and not the repubs. Trump was playing hardball grabbing Putin by the nads doing that. Putin and Iran were both suffering simply by our energy dominance under Trump. Who turned that all around again ?
The true base of American power is built on reliable, cheap and the efficient use of energy. The primary source of that energy is still "fossil" fuels which are being made illegal to use in the pursuit of the Green Agenda or what ever you are calling it these days.
Great expectations, by contrast, can spur great disappointment. In 1967, U.S. President Lyndon Johnson began a âProgress Campaignâ to show that the United States was winning in Vietnam. The administration published reams of statistics to demonstrate that the Communists were on the run, bolstering Americansâ confidence. Public support duly ticked upward. But then, in January 1968, Communist forces launched the Tet Offensive and attacked almost every major city in South Vietnam. Tactically speaking, Tet was a disaster for the Communists, as U.S. and South Vietnamese forces inflicted massive casualties. But Americansâhaving been told that their opponents were running out of steamâsaw the offensive as a defeat. U.S. public confidence in the war declined. For the Communists, a battlefield loss became a strategic win, since it put the United States on the long path to withdrawal.
I won't miss Orban but the social forces that brought him to power aren't going away any time soon. Poland and France both have had close calls with populist nativism lately, and I worry that Macron overplaying his hand could bring a backlash that Russia is eager to exploit.
American weapons come with American strings attached. So far limiting them to Ukraine proper has still let them make a huge difference; the tradeoff of access for restrictions seems to have been worth it to the Ukrainians. If France wants to let them shoot SCALPs at Moscow that's their business, but I can't see it playing well here.
I don't think anyone other than Russia (and I include Macron in that anyone) wants a wider war. Hell, nobody outside of Russia wanted the war we have now.
OK, the tankies will scour the internet to find someone (anyone!) who is arguing for an invasion and Saddam-style regime change in Russia, but we all know that view is held by a microscopic minority.
I'm glad Europe is finally stepping up to defend itself. I hope y'all can advance faster than we retreat. Who'd have imagined 20 years ago that the key to dismantling American power would be electing Republicans, and that they would have a significant faction supporting a Russian dictator?
I know, srsly! Unbelievable.
You are right on the populist forces at work in Europe (and the U.S. for that matter, and NZ, and Mars, and.. ). I still can't tell how much is substance and how much just carefully exploited knee-jerk reaction. Once Putin goes, it will be interesting to see who jumps in to fill the gap. (That someone will, goes without saying). But I'm hoping the whole propaganda thing gets turned down a notch.
I maybe subject to confirmation bias here, but I have the feeling that the pacifists and no-weapons crowd are slowly starting to have some doubts. The German SPD is a good case in point. They were genuinely surprised at the vehement response of just about every historical scholar at their recent "freeze the war" action. They are kind of like the idiot owners of badly-trained dogs saying, "he's a nice dog, really. he likes children" as the dog proceeds to maul every kid in the playground.
On this point, I was genuinely shocked at reactions in Germany to massacres like Bucha and Mariupol. I would say only about 20% of the population really understand the significance and are "all in" in supporting Ukraine. Another 40-50% were appalled, but in an arm's length kind of way, another roughly 15-20% were strongly pacifist, and at a guess, 10-15% were pro-Russian/sympathizers.
I really didn't expect such lack of empathy, I mean, if you truly understood the weight of your country's history, you can't possibly just drop the shutters and pretend not to see (speaking to a hypothetical universal German here). The ONLY possible response IMO is to do all you can to protect the victims. And I would have expected a passionate response, not this limp, here have some helmets, ok, guns, ok, some air defence, alright some tanks, but that's it. As though they were lobotomised by the lessons of the war rather than learning from it.
Some Germans do have a strong moral compass and have understood the issue, thank goodness, so I haven't totally lost faith in the country, but I was shocked at how many shrugged their shoulders and said, "not my problem."
yep, I mentioned that a couple of doors down. Somehow I think the Ukrainians have given up caring what the US want. Sure, they need US support but it has been so lacklustre of late that you have to start thinking, stuff this, let's do it our way. A lot of production capacity is getting installed in Ukraine right now, making them even more independent. Poland seems to have a good thing going with Korea and the Scandinavians and French aren't bad at making weapons either.
On this note, the right noises are starting to be made in Paris and one can only hope the SPD get kicked out of the government in the elections in Germany this year.
Hungary is also looking like Orban's days might soon be numbered.
I won't miss Orban but the social forces that brought him to power aren't going away any time soon. Poland and France both have had close calls with populist nativism lately, and I worry that Macron overplaying his hand could bring a backlash that Russia is eager to exploit.
American weapons come with American strings attached. So far limiting them to Ukraine proper has still let them make a huge difference; the tradeoff of access for restrictions seems to have been worth it to the Ukrainians. If France wants to let them shoot SCALPs at Moscow that's their business, but I can't see it playing well here.
I don't think anyone other than Russia (and I include Macron in that anyone) wants a wider war. Hell, nobody outside of Russia wanted the war we have now.
OK, the tankies will scour the internet to find someone (anyone!) who is arguing for an invasion and Saddam-style regime change in Russia, but we all know that view is held by a microscopic minority.
I'm glad Europe is finally stepping up to defend itself. I hope y'all can advance faster than we retreat. Who'd have imagined 20 years ago that the key to dismantling American power would be electing Republicans, and that they would have a significant faction supporting a Russian dictator?
Separate issues, but both driven by domestic politics. Taking out Russian oil refineries will raise world oil prices. This becomes a domestic campaign issue: They're costing you money at the gas pump! Yes, it sounds childish, but there it is.
yep, I mentioned that a couple of doors down. Somehow I think the Ukrainians have given up caring what the US want. Sure, they need US support but it has been so lacklustre of late that you have to start thinking, stuff this, let's do it our way. A lot of production capacity is getting installed in Ukraine right now, making them even more independent. Poland seems to have a good thing going with Korea and the Scandinavians and French aren't bad at making weapons either.
On this note, the right noises are starting to be made in Paris and one can only hope the SPD get kicked out of the government in the elections in Germany this year.
Hungary is also looking like Orban's days might soon be numbered.
but Ukraine is using its own drones to attack targets in Russia. Where's the problem in that?
Separate issues, but both driven by domestic politics. Taking out Russian oil refineries will raise world oil prices. This becomes a domestic campaign issue: They're costing you money at the gas pump! Yes, it sounds childish, but there it is.
The fear is that if Russia gets to tell the story that American weapons are falling on Russian soil then they are justified in escalating to attack America. Yes, they will say that anywayâand since annexing large parts of Ukraine they are making the flimsy claim that those areas are, in fact, Russian soilâso the threat is more than a little hollow. Like all the red lines that were supposed to lead to a nuclear exchange.
There are also domestic isolationists/pro-Russians to mollify. They will howl that America is bombing Russia regardless of who is doing the actual bombing so long as there is any wisp of justification.
but Ukraine is using its own drones to attack targets in Russia. Where's the problem in that?
what the actual... ? those days should be long gone. Like for like (tit for tat) should be the minimum policy now. What is the reasoning behind their reticence?
The fear is that if Russia gets to tell the story that American weapons are falling on Russian soil then they are justified in escalating to attack America. Yes, they will say that anyway—and since annexing large parts of Ukraine they are making the flimsy claim that those areas are, in fact, Russian soil—so the threat is more than a little hollow. Like all the red lines that were supposed to lead to a nuclear exchange.
There are also domestic isolationists/pro-Russians to mollify. They will howl that America is bombing Russia regardless of who is doing the actual bombing so long as there is any wisp of justification.
quite.
(btw, we are fighting a fascist regime here that is hell bent on weakening the west to consolidate power at home. Pacifism isn't going to cut it)
It's kind of like saying, here's a missile to defend yourself with, but you only allowed to shoot yourself in the foot with it.
QUESTION: The Ukrainians have recently said after some reports about the U.S. warning them not to target Russian oil refineries that they understand those warnings but they have certain military targets that they will continue to target. Can you just bring us up to speed with regard to those conversations between the U.S. and Ukraine and if you guys have recently been telling them that they should not go after these Russian oil refineries?
MR MILLER: So Iâm not going to speak to specific conversations, but it has always been our position since the outset of this war that we do not encourage or support Ukraine taking strikes outside its own territory.
what the actual... ? those days should be long gone. Like for like (tit for tat) should be the minimum policy now. What is the reasoning behind their reticence?
QUESTION: The Ukrainians have recently said after some reports about the U.S. warning them not to target Russian oil refineries that they understand those warnings but they have certain military targets that they will continue to target. Can you just bring us up to speed with regard to those conversations between the U.S. and Ukraine and if you guys have recently been telling them that they should not go after these Russian oil refineries?
MR MILLER: So I’m not going to speak to specific conversations, but it has always been our position since the outset of this war that we do not encourage or support Ukraine taking strikes outside its own territory.
what the actual... ?? those days should be long gone. Like for like (tit for tat) should be the minimum policy now. What is the reasoning behind their reticence?
