Red_Dragon wrote: 
just a couple of random thoughts

the masses have the numbers on their side and they're obviously willing to sacrifice their lives/everything but for what?

if they don't understand the true root causes of their problems, this will be a "reset" and the same cycle will start all over again

centralized or concentrated power without a clear charter or guidelines usually (on a long enough timeline) leads to corruption

swapping one bad ideology for another is like meet the new boss same as the old boss (eventually)

corrupt rulers with a monopoly on the initiation of force/violence isn't going to produce the desired results for the masses

just think if the ukraine was the weapons dealer to the world (like the US) and had the weapons/technology that the US govt has

and ask if things would have turned out differently

peace

it seems as if the Ukrainian Revolution has been successful. interesting, given the fact that only the losing side had any firearms... 

 RichardPrins wrote: 
The European Union collocates two entirely different concepts and that is not necessarily a good thing. The first is the European idea dating back to the Enlightenment and the enshrinement of basic freedoms and rights which is strangely appealing to the rest of the world too it seems. The second is economic and political entanglement under one union to dismantle nationalist tendencies, encourage the European idea, and, unfortunately, encourage a flow of economic and human resources to the large European economic centers. Whether this latter point was actually intended or not is a moot point but it is de facto what is happening.
I am pretty well aware of how splintered Ukrainian society, after all I live in one of those big European economic centers and surprise, surprise, there are a lot of really cool bright young Ukranians living here.

I am glad you liked my highly esteemed opinion. (I work diligently on that every morning with a can of brasso.) ... and no nothing is completely baseless. All of us are trying to see the truth wearing glasses in a sandstorm. ;-)

So how many rats would you like? There's a bit of a glut on the rat market at the moment. Rats everywhere!

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote: 
I guess you missed the part of the already existing divisions in Ukraine.

I am sure some of the factions want what "we in the west take for granted", even though we don't actually necessarily have that accountability everywhere either (we increasingly suffer from corruption, like for instance Russia does under the kleptocrat Putin, but in a different degree). Other factions, from what I've gathered, already include fascist and nationalist thugs.

Sure Russia has a "national interest" as well, as discussed there, and produces propaganda, like any other country does to serve that "national interest". And it would benefit (by distraction) from fomenting what might turn into a civil war in a bordering nation?

So lots of countries in Europe aren't doing good because of a brain drain? Haven't heard that one before.

So I guess in your "highly esteemed opinion" the interpretation of what was said in those "tapes" is completely baseless?

Who knew you dealt with rats?

 RichardPrins wrote: 
Sorry, but in my highly esteemed opinion, this guy is totally off his head. The entire eastern bloc is still undergoing a transition to modern democracy and is less and less forgiving of questionably elected leaders who are clearly products of the ancient soviet past than modern bumbling bureaucrats (like Angela Merkel). This current protest movement is most definitely a movement of the people and not caused by foreign powers.

The argument  he makes that by offering the Ukrainians a trade pact the Europeans caused all this trouble is a glaring non-sequitur because it is based on the premise that what the Europeans were offering is exactly what the people (at least the people in the western half of the country) want.  Naughty, naughty Europeans, how could they?!

I am more open to the idea that integration in the EU might not actually do the country any good (as a lot of other EU countries aren't doing particularly good right now as their talent gets sucked up the UK and Germany) but that is a secondary issue to what's at stake here. What the protesters want is a modern state that guarantees them modern freedoms and allows them to hold their politicians accountable. All those things that we in the west take for granted.

This is also why this issue is so sensitive. Putin knows there is a large groundswell in Russia that is heading the same way and that his days are actually numbered. In my experience rats in corners start getting pretty vicious. He is likely to stir up nationalist sentiment just to keep in power and that is precisely what the Russian propaganda machine is currently doing, and they can conveniently sacrifice the Ukrainians to do it.

A New Cold War? Ukraine Violence Escalates, Leaked Tape Suggests U.S. Was Plotting Coup | Democracy Now!

 RichardPrins wrote: 
This is horrible.  No good can come of this.  I've been trying to follow this as much as time allows.  This is going to be touchy.

Nine Dead as Mayhem Grips Ukrainian Capital - NYTimes.com

KIEV, Ukraine — Mayhem gripped the center of the Ukrainian capital on Tuesday evening as riot police officers tried to drive two armored personnel carriers through stone-reinforced barriers in Independence Square, the focal point of more than two months of protests against President Viktor F. Yanukovych.

Pelted by rocks and fireworks, the vehicles became stuck in the massive barricades outside the Khreschatyk Hotel and burst into flames, apparently trapping the security officers inside, prompting desperate rescue efforts from their colleagues.

In the course of wild day of parries and thrusts by the protesters and the police, the authorities in Kiev reported nine people killed, including two police officers. It was the bloodiest day of violence since President Yanukovych spurned a trade deal with Europe in November and set of protests that began peacefully but have since involved occasional spasms of deadly violence. (...)

BBC News - Ukraine crisis: Leaked phone call embarrasses US

 Red_Dragon wrote:
 
Very good analysis, but there is a long way to go with a series of unpredictable events to happen before anyone can claim to know what the end game is, imo.  I study/follow Ukrainian affairs fairly closely.  I have Ukrainian friends here and there.  Their opinion, and mine, is that the end game may be a division of the country—to avoid a civil war that nobody wants to see occur.  The pro west, western part of the country, including Kiev, stays Ukraine and forges stronger ties with EU Europe.  The pro-Russian east becomes a Russian client state similar to Belarus. There will be stress and contention over Crimea.  Russia will leverage intensely to maintain a naval presence and port.  Black Sea access is VERY important to them.  They have a nuclear submarine base in Ukraine on the Black Sea, currently, I believe.

Moldova (a small, very poor country) is in the middle of this too.  But they should have their own forum.

The Gov't resignation is important.  But what President Yanukovych decides will be the major pressing issue.  Are his hands tied?  Will he resign? Coup?  Stay tuned.

end game

Ukrainian Police Strip, Beat and Humiliate Protester

 

Leak of video may suggest discontent in the officer ranks with the way the government is handling the protests

We’ve seen a lot of shocking photos come out of Ukraine the last few days and months, but this latest one takes the cake. A video posted to YouTube today shows Ukrainian police abusing a naked protester with clear bruises on his body, making him pose for photos in subzero temperatures.

Ukrainian government texts ominous Orwellian message directly to cell phones of protesters | The Verge

Dear subscriber, you are registered as a participant in a mass disturbance.

 Coaxial wrote:The Chechnyans, among others,  will be highly motivated  to wreak havoc.  They are hardened, fearless, skilled fighters who have succeeded in terror acts in the past.  Putin will have Sochi and the surrounding area virtually inaccessible to the non-credentialed.  The winter Olympics require mountains, and that sort of terrain is easier to penetrate, difficult to defend.

 ScottN wrote: 
That whole area seems so volatile I wonder just how safe they can really make Sochi....

I won't pretend I am expert, but I have been to Ukraine several times and have Ukrainian friends here. I study Ukraine history and follow closely current events. Ukraine, to avoid a civil war, will partition. The pro west portion of the country, including Kiev will join the west.  The pro-Russia east will become another Belarus-type Russian client state.  The issue will be Crimea and Black Sea disputes. Moldova (an impoverished country) lies between the pro Russia area and western leaning Odessa—-another problem.  Russia is heavily vested in having seaport access  on the Black Sea..  Very simplified version, of course, but it seems the way it is playing...so far.

Ukraine: 3 protesters dead amid clashes with police in Kiev

A bird's-eye view of the demonstrations in Ukraine show the vast scale and might of the protests

This extraordinary recent panoramic view shows Independence Square in the heart of Kiev, Ukraine’s capital.

Demonstrators have defied a ban on protests, taken control of the square, stormed City Hall and demanded “revolution.”

 Manbird wrote:

Mailbags always did. They have a check box for "what do you want to do if customs gives you any trouble?" One of the options was "Abandon." I always checked that.