NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote: 
Reports this morning are that large numbers of Ukrainian troops are defecting.

 hobiejoe wrote: 
Telling me! It feels a bit close to home as it is.

Given the current situation, that fighting has not actually started and an uneasy truce prevails I honestly think that the only sensible way foward is to split Crimea off from the Ukraine and turn both into separate countries. This would appease Russia and the demonstrators would get what they wanted, an independent state that could move closer to Europe. As it is there is a huge risk of war and everyone losing something if not everything.

The anti-Russian rhetoric coming from the west is a bit rich. John Kerry seems to have conviently forgotten that the US marched into Iraq on less of a pretext than that facing Russia right now. The majority of the Crimea is Russian. Crimea even belonged to Russia until 1954 (well just gloss over the fact that the Soviets ethnically cleansed it before that but, hey ho).

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote: 
I think you're right, Putin had it away in Georgia, or what became Georgia less South Ossetia and Abkhazia, in 2008. And that was, to a greater or lesser extent, a shooting war. The lesser extent meaning it was one between two utterly mismatched opponents.
 
I imagine that the Russians must want the Crimea hugely - their Black Sea fleet is based there, and they negotiated hard to keep a presence there at the breakup of the USSR. Looks like they'll get it, because what else can Ukraine do?
 
Blimey. If this kind of shit was happening in the eighties we'd all be bricking ourselves.

 Red_Dragon wrote: 
The comments are interesting.
 

Battleship Potemkin!

Russia moves to bring back ambassador from US, amid Ukraine crisis

 RichardPrins wrote: 
  guess it's no laughing matter but still.  

My prediction: the EU and the US will do a bit of blustering about this and that and naughty naughty Putin but in the end Russia will exert its influence over the region. Putin will be a hero at home and become  in some disguise or other a benevolent (or less so) dictator of Russia, keeping tight control over any splinter groups and minorities. Over time corruption will set in, or Putin dies and the place will gradually fall apart from corruption and general ineptitude.

Social network wars...

A leader of the Ukrainian radical group Pravy Sektor (Right Sector), Dmitry Yarosh, has called on Russia’s most wanted terrorist Doku Umarov to act against Russia in an address posted on Right Sector’s page in VKontakte social network.

The statement points out that “many Ukrainians with arms in the hands” supported Chechen militants in their fight against Russians and “it is time to support Ukraine now.”

The message, signed “leader of Right Sector Dmitry Yarosh” then calls on Umarov “to activate his fight” and “take a unique chance to win” over Russia.

What's next? Calling on the (Muslim) Tatars in Crimea to start a jihad (which might get some Western cash/arms flowing)?

...and parliament rubbers stamps it.

...hmmm I wonder why the people are so pissed off and joining fascist splinter groups?

PALIN MOCKED IN 2008 FOR WARNING PUTIN MAY INVADE UKRAINE IF OBAMA ELECTED

And no, I don't like Palin.....

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote: 
I've never seen him smile... scary.

 RichardPrins wrote: 
Ah, beg your pardon. Yes, you are right. Though the flavors are a bit different. Ukraine, who would you buy a used car from?

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
 
You missed the point. The revolutionaries get to choose between Western imperialism or Russian imperialism. As for the rise of extremism, sure, it can be seen in various parts of Europe (esp. Greece) in response to economic malaise (which will keep repeating itself along with its own brand of corruption, i.e. the massive off-shore accounts and further financialization of economies).

And as far as Crimea goes, let's not ignore:

Sergei Aksenov, the head of the main pro-Russia party on the peninsula, said in a statement reported by local and Russian news agencies that he appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin "for assistance in guaranteeing peace and calmness on the territory of the autonomous republic of Crimea."

Aksenov declared that the armed forces, the police, the national security service and border guards will answer only to his orders. He said any commanders who don't agree should leave their posts.

And we of course know Obama wagged his finger at Putin, just before Russia responded...

 RichardPrins wrote: 
You can hardly call the fascist elements of the protest movement imperalist, no matter how much they might like to fantasize about it.
In my experience you get right wing elements always rising when the economy falters and unemployment rises or alternatively, people don't see any future. This is ripe territory for hotheads to start finding scapegoats and the resulting "together we are strong" sentiment that is at the root of all fascism flourishes. This is as true in France or the US as it is in the Ukraine.

By this token, the best thing you can do is encourage business opportunity and international ties. This is the glimmer of opportunity that makes the EU seem so attractive to many in the protest movement.

EDIT:
The trouble is the EU has a history of reneging on its economic promises for backward regions and all that happens is the young people wander off to more promising centers elsewhere in the Union.

 buzz wrote: 
Hey, I was being all uncharacteristically optimistic and shit again - gimmie a break, will ya?

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote: 
Which might be a clue about at least some of those revolutionaries, and especially in light of the quote your provided from the Sector Right.

"Never believe anything in politics until it has been officially denied." - Otto von Bismarck (unsourced)

Their choice is then between two different flavours of imperialism.

 Red_Dragon wrote: 
fyt

 RichardPrins wrote: 
The Europeans were pushing strongly for concessions from the Maidan side of the argument that would indicate they took the interests of the Russian population seriously and protected their rights including anchoring the Russian language as a second state language. The failure of the revolutionaries to do this is a pretty big factor in the breakdown of the pact brokered by the Europeans, but was probably inevitable. Last one week one of the protestors said "Our country is fucked." Perhaps the most lucid assessment of the situation to date.

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote: 
This "antiquated 19th century nationalist jingoism" is very much alive in many places (and some might argue on the rise), not in the least in some of the Western countries (obviously incl. the US), but also in places like China, and yes, as a result of break-up of the USSR, in Russia.

The "lot of Ukrainians" is very likely a minority, with plenty of unsavoury very nationalistic (if not outright fascist) elements. This of course can be ignored at one's own peril, while repeating slogans about the glories of democracy. Reality is a bit different though (incl. about those democracies), regardless of how one wants to view the leader of Russia, who still, as far as I can see, carries the support of most Russians.

And while on the topic of nationalists, more from that last article:

(...) Let me address the alleged threat to Putin’s government by the Maidan. I think the individuals pushing those ideas in the media cannot begin to imagine how much the Maidan events strengthen Putin’s position and disgust Russian society, prompting more widespread disgust with all events occurring in the Western part of Ukraine. Those individuals do not understand that no one discredits the ideas of the Maidan and the Orange Revolution more than the very leaders of those revolutions. During the Orange Revolution, the very instigators began to hurl accusations at each other, both credible and not very, of corruption and other sins once they got in power. After just a few months, the Orange revolutionaries tossed aside all slogans of freedom and democratic catharsis; slogans, which now appear again on the Maidan. The situation degraded to the point where, in 2010, the former felon Yanukovich won the elections against the Orange revolutionaries. And all these above-mentioned analysts seriously think that Putin is afraid of such revolutions and such a Maidan celebrating under swastikas and radical nationalist symbols. Woe to all those politicians that will base their policy on such analysis with regard to Ukraine and Russia from Washington, Berlin, and Brussels.

The current situation in Ukraine differs enormously from the situation there in the 1990s and even from the time of the Orange Revolution, and needs sober evaluation and sober decisions.

It is obvious that power has passed into the hands of the Maidan revolutionaries, led by armed radical nationalists. Moderate politicians at present have no control over the Maidan, the radicals, or the street. It is hard to believe that in this case politicians in the EU and Washington will continue to pay lip service in support of the current “authorities” in Ukraine; at a maximum, they will promise them economic aid of the size of $1-2 billion. Neither Brussels nor Washington has the money to offer anything substantial. When I asked the German ambassador whether Angela Merkel had the money to save the Ukrainian economy, he remained silent. This means that an aggravated economic situation will only bring more chaos and give more power to the radicals.

Unable to solve economic problems, the radicals will continue with fervor to impose their terror on the people, first outlawing the use of Russian language, then harassing the Russian population, and finally exercising repressions on the pro-Russian political forces even via the use of armed gangs to assert control over the East and South. I do not exclude the possibility of armed clashes between the radical nationalists and the pro-Russian forces in the East, South, and especially in Crimea. The consequences maybe ominous. (...)