"resistance" in technical analysis (TA) is based on some kind of exponential or moving average which are supposed to capture investor sentiment. Example (but one): where 50 day moving average and a 200 day moving average cross will identify a "resistance" level.
Before you dismiss this out of hand, there are lots of well educated, smart people who either trade exclusively based on TA or use it to supplement a more fundamental analysis approach to investing and trading.
Don't like it? Well, there is always the Soviet central committee approach to managing an economy...... To understand what enlightened politically appointed committees can do to an otherwise performing economy see the radical Neo-Marxist populist regimes in South America and Africa. They are world class, frankly the 'greatest' when it comes to destroying social-economic wealth.
The idea that any one person (outside maybe a head of state declaring war or imposing massive taxes) can "fuck" with a currency and have it move 10%+ overnight suggests there is little intrinsic value to the currency.
Shit, he told you as much on national TV over the weekend. Distributed ledgers will prevail, but the idea that any one crypto will redefine commerce is a long way off. It's a casino. You felt like you were splitting 10's and doubling your money with face cards, only for the dealer to pull blackjack. Tulips anyone?
The danger with Elon is that he has done everything in business. He's built the most valuable car company in the world while reinventing transportation (underground) and giving rides to NASA while also plotting a global satellite internet and going to Mars. (That was a fucked up thing to type... } He's bored. Being on TV may have created an attention monster. A guy with his money and lack of respect for social norms can be dangerous. Your silver dollar analogy is a good one. Let's hope he stops at dollars.
On your first. You forget about what Soros has done in the past with real currency.
That will explain the current sudden drops in crypto. Bitcoin itself has suffered the worst of the majors. It has dropped below 50 k and is overall down 10 k or 17% for the past month, at least. I did predict that Bitcoin would drop down into the 40's and become range bound for the foreseeable future. We'll see how that works out. So far Ethereum is still up 80% in the past month and Bitcoin Cash is up 90% despite this pronouncement.
At this point in time, I think that Musk is fucking with us, to see how gullible we are and to find out how much influence he is directly capable of.
The modern day equivalent of a rich man during the Depression throwing a silver dollar on the ground on a street corner and watching the fight to be the one to get it, for nothing more than their personal amusement. At least Musk is up to something beyond personal amusement, I hope.
The idea that any one person (outside maybe a head of state declaring war or imposing massive taxes) can "fuck" with a currency and have it move 10%+ overnight suggests there is little intrinsic value to the currency. Shit, he told you as much on national TV over the weekend. Distributed ledgers will prevail, but the idea that any one crypto will redefine commerce is a long way off. It's a casino. You felt like you were splitting 10's and doubling your money with face cards, only for the dealer to pull blackjack. Tulips anyone?
The danger with Elon is that he has done everything in business. He's built the most valuable car company in the world while reinventing transportation (underground) and giving rides to NASA while also plotting a global satellite internet and going to Mars. (That was a fucked up thing to type... } He's bored. Being on TV may have created an attention monster. A guy with his money and lack of respect for social norms can be dangerous. Your silver dollar analogy is a good one. Let's hope he stops at dollars.
That will explain the current sudden drops in crypto. Bitcoin itself has suffered the worst of the majors. It has dropped below 50 k and is overall down 10 k or 17% for the past month, at least. I did predict that Bitcoin would drop down into the 40's and become range bound for the foreseeable future. We'll see how that works out. So far Ethereum is still up 80% in the past month and Bitcoin Cash is up 90% despite this pronouncement.
At this point in time, I think that Musk is fucking with us, to see how gullible we are and to find out how much influence he is directly capable of.
The modern day equivalent of a rich man during the Depression throwing a silver dollar on the ground on a street corner and watching the fight to be the one to get it, for nothing more than their personal amusement. At least Musk is up to something beyond personal amusement, I hope.
Resistance is a point where (some) investors assume the risk/reward has turned against them and sell.
There are generally trends that support prior pressure at resistance levels. If you look at the one month chart for Ether, there are no consistent resistance points / dips in the trend. If 4,000 was a major one, what's the next resistance point?
It's more psychological than anything else, imo. There are so many charts and notions about the charts. Patterns and whatnot. Head and shoulder curves, whatever. Not as relevant with crypto, imo. It is more about breaking new upper limits, period. The only thing that seems to stop the upward trend is bad news regarding threatened regulatory events. But what do I know in the end ? Not much. Bitcoin itself and Dogecoin notwithstanding as they are more outliers, imo.
I would say that $5k is the next resistance point for Ethereum.
I have a live action candlestick chart that I was watching last night when it broke 4k. I had it set to by the hour. I saw it touch 4000.00, then drop to 3998. 96, and back up to 3999.99 for about 15 minutes. Finally it hit 4000.00 even, dropped a couple of cents, bounced around within a couple of bucks under 4, then hit it even again and finally zoomed up to around 4032, IIRC. The volume at that point was pretty substantial, too. The new high is now 4137 and it is presently at around 4135 - 4130.
Ethereum just broke through a major resistance point of $4000 USD.
Measured how?
Resistance is a point where investors assume the risk/reward has turned against them and sell. There are generally trends that support prior pressure at resistance levels. If you look at the one month chart for Ether, there are no consistent resistance points / dips in the trend. If 4,000 was a major one, what's the next resistance point?
I just counted the Bitcoin SPAM in the gmail SPAM folder. 16 out of 88. 18% of the SPAM concerned Bitcoin.
If that does not indicate a bubble, what does?
There is zero crypto spam in my spam folder and I actually own some. Ironic, eh ? Better you than me ;)
So I finally played that Bloomberg vid. Saw it wasn't an article so it took some time to get to.
I see Giustra's points, to a degree. I agree that Bitcoin has affected the gold market and imo, actually stabilized it. It is far less volatile than it has traditionally been in the past.
I think that we are living in a bubble driven economy quite frankly. Giustra is right about speculation and momentum though in regards to crypto in general. Those are drivers in many commodities however.
I dunno. My involvement is a gut feeling / opportunity / timing thing. I think / hope that I got in at a relatively safe low point where there is still an opportunity for large % increases with the two that I settled on (Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash) as opposed to Bitcoin which is pretty much range bound for the foreseeable future. And I think that others may see that as well. Litecoin is a waste of time presently, imo.
As far as hype is concerned, I think much if not most is focused on Dogecoin, which I only recently became aware of. Sorry, not for me. Pure speculation at this point, imho. Too easily manipulated by hype.
So I went and looked at my receipts for a timeline. I first went into this on March 22. Dumped Bitcoin April 20 on the plus, nicely. Up 50% actually. Dumped Litecoin April 25 for a slight loss, though still nicely up overall with the proceeds from Bitcoin. So since this readjustment during that week in April, I doubled my holdings in the two remaining and I'm now up roughly 75% in the past three weeks. Barring some crazy, I might expect to see 100% within the next two weeks. Then comes the first crossroads.
rgio laid it out pretty well below. If I take back the initial, even though I reduce my gain potential accordingly, I have made money with money and have established a grub stake of sorts in short order. That was a goal. And it is still all gain going forward. I must say that the wife is thinking the same way, too.
Funny how all successful speculators in big zero-sum games — often asset bubbles — end up in cash. Says a lot about the success of fiat currency and monetary management by modern central banks.
It also hints at the strongly at the notion of taking gains earlier than later.
Longer term could be cash out the initial at 100% and let the proceeds ride, which would be the smart thing to do. But then I only get half of the gain going forward.
No...it's ALL gain...since it was free. Risk/reward strikes again!
pretty much goes for anyone who invested in the S&P 500 too.
Yeah, IIRC it wasn't all that long ago when Soros was big time shorting the S&P 500. And he ended up on the wrong side of that, but who know's how that worked out in reality ...
But a now 65% bump in 3 weeks is rather earth shaking to a little guy like me. And it seems likely to hold as things have flattened out with a new higher bottom. This observation only applies to the two crypto's I've kept. Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash of the 4 choices available in Pay Pal. They also seem to compliment each other with similar curves / %'s / trends. PP is just a couple of mouse clicks in real time, 24 / 7. They will even keep track of your gains or losses when withdrawing. Just get the 1099 at the end of the year.
Again, I'm only doing this because PP laid this opportunity in my lap. I'm not going to go through the angst of watching stocks and jumping through hoops to buy or sell. I'm just looking at percentages and trends. Anything in the news is easily discovered watching the morning business news for things like Central Bank decisions. Those seem to have more of a negative affect than anything else. And watch for the plateaus and their duration. This is what I have learned to do after watching Bitcoin over time.
Longer term could be cash out the initial at 100% and let the proceeds ride, which would be the smart thing to do. But then I only get half of the gain going forward.
As someone who helped build what later became Goldcorp, Frank Giustra says bitcoin is more like a tech stock than gold. He also talks about the future of energy, having served as a strategic adviser for DeepGreen Metals for a number of years. The company is set to merge with the Sustainable Opportunities Acquisition Corporation (NYSE: SOAC) and become public in June 2021 as The Metals Company.
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kurtster: You might enjoy this more reasoned, analytical approach to Bitcoin and similar. Giustra — well known in Canadian resource investment circles — does not mention the huge energy demand of blockchain technology.
"As someone who made money off GameStop, Dogecoin and a lottery ticket this year, the best financial advice I can give you is to just be a f#$king idiot."
