[ ]   [ ]   [ ]                        [ ]      [ ]   [ ]

Baseball, anyone? - rgio - Dec 9, 2023 - 4:47pm
 
NYTimes Connections - islander - Dec 9, 2023 - 4:29pm
 
Wordle - daily game - islander - Dec 9, 2023 - 4:26pm
 
Name My Band - Sofa_King - Dec 9, 2023 - 1:37pm
 
Trump - RedTopFireBelow - Dec 9, 2023 - 11:58am
 
Gotta Get Your Drink On - Red_Dragon - Dec 9, 2023 - 11:37am
 
Guns - Red_Dragon - Dec 9, 2023 - 7:56am
 
Today in History - Red_Dragon - Dec 9, 2023 - 7:38am
 
RightWingNutZ - Steely_D - Dec 9, 2023 - 12:18am
 
Radio Paradise Comments - oldviolin - Dec 8, 2023 - 9:09pm
 
Joe Biden - kurtster - Dec 8, 2023 - 8:14pm
 
The Obituary Page - Steely_D - Dec 8, 2023 - 7:32pm
 
Israel - Beaker - Dec 8, 2023 - 5:33pm
 
Catch Me Up on RP Changes - Coaxial - Dec 8, 2023 - 4:06pm
 
December 2023 Photo Theme - Reflection - Alchemist - Dec 8, 2023 - 1:19pm
 
Best guitarists - Beaker - Dec 8, 2023 - 1:17pm
 
Radio Paradise NFL Pick'em Group - GeneP59 - Dec 8, 2023 - 9:28am
 
Thoughtful Suggestions for Improving America - islander - Dec 8, 2023 - 8:49am
 
Live Music - R_P - Dec 7, 2023 - 9:21pm
 
Things You Thought Today - oldviolin - Dec 7, 2023 - 4:17pm
 
Bug Reports & Feature Requests - ScottFromWyoming - Dec 7, 2023 - 10:56am
 
What Puts You In the Christmas Mood? - lily34 - Dec 7, 2023 - 5:36am
 
Questions. - oldviolin - Dec 6, 2023 - 10:09am
 
If not RP, what are you listening to right now? - miamizsun - Dec 6, 2023 - 8:55am
 
Upcoming concerts or shows you can't wait to see - Steve - Dec 6, 2023 - 8:21am
 
What the hell OV? - miamizsun - Dec 6, 2023 - 5:29am
 
Outstanding Covers - Steely_D - Dec 6, 2023 - 4:03am
 
Chess - Manbird - Dec 5, 2023 - 10:23pm
 
• • • The Once-a-Day • • •  - oldviolin - Dec 5, 2023 - 6:38pm
 
Republican Party - Red_Dragon - Dec 5, 2023 - 3:05pm
 
Is there any DOG news out there? - Beez - Dec 5, 2023 - 8:12am
 
Museum of Iconic Album Covers - ColdMiser - Dec 5, 2023 - 7:14am
 
The Pogues - garrettb - Dec 4, 2023 - 7:17pm
 
Did somebody hack RP ? (just kidding) - bluegroper - Dec 4, 2023 - 5:35pm
 
Buddy's Haven - oldviolin - Dec 4, 2023 - 4:44pm
 
As California Goes, So Goes The Rest Of The Country - islander - Dec 4, 2023 - 4:02pm
 
Picnic Games Suggestions - Proclivities - Dec 4, 2023 - 1:02pm
 
Pernicious Pious Proclivities Particularized Prodigiously - Red_Dragon - Dec 4, 2023 - 10:51am
 
Photos you haven't taken of yourself - Beez - Dec 4, 2023 - 9:57am
 
New Music - miamizsun - Dec 4, 2023 - 6:28am
 
Artificial Intelligence - thisbody - Dec 4, 2023 - 2:53am
 
Think About It - miamizsun - Dec 3, 2023 - 12:49pm
 
USA! USA! USA! - R_P - Dec 3, 2023 - 11:50am
 
Radio Paradise on multiple Echo speakers via an Alexa Rou... - dcameron - Dec 3, 2023 - 9:20am
 
The World IS Hunted - Steely_D - Dec 2, 2023 - 11:20pm
 
November 2023 Photo Theme - Perspective - MrDill - Dec 2, 2023 - 10:11am
 
2024 Elections! - Red_Dragon - Dec 2, 2023 - 9:16am
 
Musky Mythology - Red_Dragon - Dec 2, 2023 - 9:11am
 
Update playlist please - hansotten - Dec 2, 2023 - 2:55am
 
Vinyl Only Spin List - kurtster - Dec 1, 2023 - 7:42pm
 
Fear of Flying - Beaker - Dec 1, 2023 - 1:53pm
 
Talk Behind Their Backs Forum - GeneP59 - Dec 1, 2023 - 8:43am
 
Eclectic Sound-Drops - thisbody - Dec 1, 2023 - 8:13am
 
songs that ROCK! - thisbody - Dec 1, 2023 - 6:53am
 
Other Medical Stuff - kurtster - Dec 1, 2023 - 3:04am
 
OUR CATS!! - Red_Dragon - Nov 30, 2023 - 6:11pm
 
JFK Assassination - kurtster - Nov 30, 2023 - 12:46pm
 
Pogues! - ScottFromWyoming - Nov 30, 2023 - 11:45am
 
FLAC stream crashes Sonos - fbloemhof - Nov 30, 2023 - 10:32am
 
Download Manager IPhone problems - RPnate1 - Nov 29, 2023 - 11:31am
 
RP On Windows Media Player? - William - Nov 29, 2023 - 10:00am
 
RP Daily Trivia Challenge - lily34 - Nov 29, 2023 - 8:44am
 
Animal Resistance - lily34 - Nov 28, 2023 - 9:59am
 
The Dragons' Roost - GeneP59 - Nov 28, 2023 - 8:59am
 
Economix - black321 - Nov 28, 2023 - 7:38am
 
NY Times Spelling Bee - lily34 - Nov 28, 2023 - 6:48am
 
New mix, what would you like to see ? - KurtfromLaQuinta - Nov 28, 2023 - 6:27am
 
Tech - what makes RP sound so good? - William - Nov 27, 2023 - 5:37pm
 
Dialing 1-800-Manbird - oldviolin - Nov 27, 2023 - 1:32pm
 
♥ ♥ ♥ Vote For Pie ♥ ♥ ♥ - miamizsun - Nov 27, 2023 - 10:36am
 
iPad wake screen - michaelmuller - Nov 27, 2023 - 10:11am
 
the Todd Rundgren topic - Coaxial - Nov 27, 2023 - 9:36am
 
Mixtape Culture Club - ColdMiser - Nov 27, 2023 - 7:46am
 
Lyrics That Remind You of Someone - oldviolin - Nov 26, 2023 - 8:25pm
 
Happy Thanksgiving! - Bill_J - Nov 26, 2023 - 5:58pm
 
Index » Regional/Local » USA/Canada » It's the economy stupid. Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next
Post to this Topic
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 13, 2015 - 8:55am

 aflanigan wrote:

I don't feel in any way obligated to respond to the red herrings you threw up when I noted that your prediction that our economy would crumble (in your words) by 2012 was wrong. You can try and move the goalposts all you like, and split all the hairs/attempt to wiggle out of all the predictions you want, but you'd look a lot less absurd IMO if you'd just own up to being in the wrong when the facts are not on your side.

 
ok, so I wrong about 2012.  Better now ?

 
aflanigan

aflanigan Avatar

Location: At Sea
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 13, 2015 - 8:43am

 kurtster wrote:

Fine,

Why don't you pick apart my rebuttal to your claims.  Did I get something wrong ?

I musta got something wrong. 

 
I don't feel in any way obligated to respond to the red herrings you threw up when I noted that your prediction that our economy would crumble (in your words) by 2012 was wrong. You can try and move the goalposts all you like, and split all the hairs/attempt to wiggle out of all the predictions you want, but you'd look a lot less absurd IMO if you'd just own up to being in the wrong when the facts are not on your side.


 
black321

black321 Avatar

Location: An earth without maps
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 12, 2015 - 2:30pm

 kurtster wrote:
There is a word not spoken much recently, unsustainable 


yeah maybe, but the end of the world only comes once. 
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 12, 2015 - 2:25pm

 aflanigan wrote:

Right. OK Chicken Little. You must be right. The economy will tank/hyperinflation will hit any day   week   month   year  decade now. 
Meanwhile I'd avoid the more specific dire predictions that have obviously not panned out that you made previously below, and stick with more vague ramblings like "long haul" and "false sense of security". Much easier to retroactively defend these sorts of pronouncements.

 
Fine,

Why don't you pick apart my rebuttal to your claims.  Did I get something wrong ?

I musta got something wrong. 
aflanigan

aflanigan Avatar

Location: At Sea
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 12, 2015 - 1:58pm

 kurtster wrote:

There is a word not spoken much recently, unsustainable.  While you and many others think that the good times are back, it ain't looking good for the long haul.  QE has so distorted our economy and reality and created a false sense of security.  Once again, where are the jobs, enough jobs to keep up with population growth ?  It just ain't happening.  

 
Right. OK Chicken Little. You must be right. The economy will tank/hyperinflation will hit any day   week   month   year  decade now. 
Meanwhile I'd avoid the more specific dire predictions that have obviously not panned out that you made previously below, and stick with more vague ramblings like "long haul" and "false sense of security". Much easier to retroactively defend these sorts of pronouncements.
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 12, 2015 - 1:37pm

 aflanigan wrote:
kurt, there are very few people I know who would consider investor gains of over 200 percent over five years, sixty three straight months of economic expansion, and 25 straight months of manufacturing sector expansion as evidence of a national economy that is, as you suggested, "crumbling". Who on earth is your optometrist?

Middle class shrinkage and the wealth gap are both phenomena that have been going on for the last two or three decades. They should definitely be addressed now that we've gotten the economy back on track. But they are not the primary yardstick used to gauge the overall health of the US economy.
 

 
jeez, you just keep throwing softballs ...

the second bolded first ...  the growing manufacturing sector ?  really ?  It is so small a part of our economy as to be almost meaningless.

12 million jobs overall, down from 17 million at year 2000.  Any growth is better than nothing, which essentially is what our manufacturing sector has been reduced to.



On to the point about expansion, investment and the booming stock market.

We have not had 63 consecutive months of economic expansion.  Remember last winter ?  2014 Q 1 ?  The weather was so, so bad that it actually knocked our "strong" recovery into a contraction.  There have been other quarters as well.


Why is the stock market booming ?  QE and no other reason.  We were printing so much money that it had nowhere else to go.  It was a race to devalue the dollar and make our exports affordable.  Howze that working now ?  US QE is over and the dollar is at a 5 year high against the Euro as well as most other currencies.  Its still climbing because the EU has embraced QE and Euro's are being converted into dollars as cash is leaving the Eurozone.  It will be interesting to see what happens to the estimated 2 to 3 trillion dollars in cash that US companies have parked outside of the US because of the US corporate tax structure.

The only bright spot right now is oil.  Its not falling purely from oversupply, its falling because of the strengthening dollar and lack of global demand due to economic slowdowns.

There is a word not spoken much recently, unsustainable.  While you and many others think that the good times are back, it ain't looking good for the long haul.  QE has so distorted our economy and reality and created a false sense of security.  Once again, where are the jobs, enough jobs to keep up with population growth ?  It just ain't happening.  


aflanigan

aflanigan Avatar

Location: At Sea
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 12, 2015 - 12:35pm

kurt, there are very few people I know who would consider investor gains of over 200 percent over five years, sixty three straight months of economic expansion, and 25 straight months of manufacturing sector expansion as evidence of a national economy that is, as you suggested, "crumbling". Who on earth is your optometrist?

Middle class shrinkage and the wealth gap are both phenomena that have been going on for the last two or three decades. They should definitely be addressed now that we've gotten the economy back on track. But they are not the primary yardstick used to gauge the overall health of the US economy.
 


kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 12, 2015 - 9:16am

 aflanigan wrote:

OK, then, where's your graph showing the failure of the economy by 2012 that you predicted back in 2011? Doesn't seem to have failed to those of us living in the real world. We're in, what, the 57th straight month of economic recovery?

Obama Outperforms Reagan on Jobs, Growth, and Investing 
The article addresses the LPR rate which you seem to be carping about as a sign that the economy is tanking. 

“Labor participation is affected much less by short-term job creation, and much more by long-term demographic trends. As this chart from the BLS shows, as the Baby Boomers entered the workforce and societal acceptance of women working changed, labor participation grew.

Now that ‘Boomers’ are retiring we are seeing the percentage of those seeking employment decline.  This has nothing to do with job availability, and everything to do with a highly predictable aging demographic."

 

 

 
The second bolded first.  The LPR has nothing to do with retiring babyboomers.  It only surveys those 64 years old and under.  So as one turns 65, they are removed from that group and do not constitute a variable in determining the number.  It is widely accepted that in order to keep up with only population growth, 250,000 jobs must be created every month, which is 3 million jobs per year, again to keep things flat.

On the first bolded, just who is the economy getting better for ?  Again, where are the new jobs that grow beyond population growth and affect the LPR ?

And as for who is doing better ...

 American Wealth Gap Reaches All-Time High – Pew Research Center


aflanigan

aflanigan Avatar

Location: At Sea
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 12, 2015 - 8:36am

 kurtster wrote:

Awe, you shouldna.  You just to thoughtful for words !  

I can have fun with graphs, too !

 
OK, then, where's your graph showing the failure of the economy by 2012 that you predicted back in 2011? Doesn't seem to have failed to those of us living in the real world. We're in, what, the 57th straight month of economic recovery?

Obama Outperforms Reagan on Jobs, Growth, and Investing 
The article addresses the LPR rate which you seem to be carping about as a sign that the economy is tanking. 

“Labor participation is affected much less by short-term job creation, and much more by long-term demographic trends. As this chart from the BLS shows, as the Baby Boomers entered the workforce and societal acceptance of women working changed, labor participation grew.

“Now that ‘Boomers’ are retiring we are seeing the percentage of those seeking employment decline.  This has nothing to do with job availability, and everything to do with a highly predictable aging demographic."

 

 
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 11, 2015 - 8:08pm

 aflanigan wrote:
An interesting graph.



Interesting to see the dire predictions below from a few years ago.

kurtster, remind me never to consult you for financial advice or economic predictions.


 

 
Awe, you shouldna.  You just to thoughtful for words !  

I can have fun with graphs, too !

This one puts yours into perspective pretty well ...


  

Bonus points.  Can you tell me what happened in the 70's to drive up the participation rate ?

Super bonus points / hint ... its what caused the beginning of the decline in real wages in the US.


aflanigan

aflanigan Avatar

Location: At Sea
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 11, 2015 - 8:26am

 Steely_D wrote:

It's good to remember that vehemence doesn't equal accuracy when watching our politicians speak.

 
The other thing is that increasingly, being president/being the "party in control" is kind of like attempting to steer a caterpillar along with 20 or 30 other people sitting on top of the caterpillar. Economic trends such as jobs, wages, inflation, etc. are a function of various factors, and only some are subject to political control.
 
aflanigan

aflanigan Avatar

Location: At Sea
Gender: Male


Posted: Jan 10, 2015 - 2:39pm

An interesting graph.



Interesting to see the dire predictions below from a few years ago.

kurtster, remind me never to consult you for financial advice or economic predictions.


 


Steve

Steve Avatar

Location: Around My Corner... and Up Yours
Gender: Male


Posted: Oct 17, 2014 - 8:08am




DaveInSaoMiguel

DaveInSaoMiguel Avatar

Location: No longer in a hovel in effluent Damnville, VA
Gender: Male


Posted: Feb 23, 2014 - 8:11am


sirdroseph

sirdroseph Avatar

Location: Not here, I tell you wat
Gender: Male


Posted: Feb 6, 2013 - 11:43pm

The news is not all bad, there are some industries that are thriving.
kurtster

kurtster Avatar

Location: where fear is not a virtue
Gender: Male


Posted: May 23, 2012 - 3:58pm

 jagdriver wrote:

You bet. And while they're shuttering their California campuses (where Meg wanted to be governor, remember?), I'll bet they're hanging on to all of their TX campuses and constituency. Even under Carly's reign, too much control was being handed over to the former Compaq folks.

Speaking of Compaq, how is it that a single company can make so many poorly-thought out acquisitions? Sheesh.

EDIT: Oh, and if Meg continues to whittle away at the Roseville campus, that means I'll NEVER find another gig in the Greater Sacramento region on account of all of the folks who'll be scrounging for whatever morsels they can get. So I guess I can stop my three-year search and resign myself to retiring from this place. At least I'm employed, right?

(Oh, and Bain Capital had nothing to do with any of this.)

 

Yep, that's everything right now. 
jagdriver

jagdriver Avatar

Location: Now in Lobster Land
Gender: Male


Posted: May 23, 2012 - 3:30pm

 Beaker wrote:
Crap.  That's a buttload of jobs to shed in this economy.  So this would be their alternative way of making the numbers work instead of selling off their PC division to China.  Ouch.
 
You bet. And while they're shuttering their California campuses (where Meg wanted to be governor, remember?), I'll bet they're hanging on to all of their TX campuses and constituency. Even under Carly's reign, too much control was being handed over to the former Compaq folks.

Speaking of Compaq, how is it that a single company can make so many poorly-thought out acquisitions? Sheesh.

EDIT: Oh, and if Meg continues to whittle away at the Roseville campus, that means I'll NEVER find another gig in the Greater Sacramento region on account of all of the folks who'll be scrounging for whatever morsels they can get. So I guess I can stop my three-year search and resign myself to retiring from this place. At least I'm employed, right?

(Oh, and Bain Capital had nothing to do with any of this.)


DaveInSaoMiguel

DaveInSaoMiguel Avatar

Location: No longer in a hovel in effluent Damnville, VA
Gender: Male


Posted: May 23, 2012 - 3:10pm

 jagdriver wrote:

HP cutting 27,000 jobs

Wife keeps saying, "You never should have left there—you'd still have all of the benefits of ."

Even while I was there under Carly Fiorina's reign, it was obvious to everyone in my group that there were numerous bodies whose sole role was to help keep the building warm during the winter, and to help prop up the Sodexo-run cafeteria.   


 
 I worked here for 29 years and had I not stroked out and ended up on disability I likely would have gotten laid off along with the other 5000 or so employees there. Just an empty 75 acre lot now.
jagdriver

jagdriver Avatar

Location: Now in Lobster Land
Gender: Male


Posted: May 23, 2012 - 3:06pm

HP cutting 27,000 jobs

Wife keeps saying, "You never should have left there—you'd still have all of the benefits of <mutual acquaintance>."

Even while I was there under Carly Fiorina's reign, it was obvious to everyone in my group that there were numerous bodies whose sole role was to help keep the building warm during the winter, and to help prop up the Sodexo-run cafeteria.   

islander

islander Avatar

Location: Seattle
Gender: Male


Posted: Jun 14, 2011 - 11:31am

 kurtster wrote:


Obama is fair game in this regard.  He just finally admitted that he doesn't really understand government and economics with his remarks about shovel ready projects.  Hell, we have a 3 mile stretch of road widening that is part of the Stimulus Bill.  In fact this road had been prepped before the 2008 election.  Spring 2009 the signs went up at both ends.  It is still unfinished aproaching the Summer of 2011, and the signs disappeared this Spring.  What work has been done so far has been downright shoddy with many parts redone.  I don't see how it will be finished this Summer making it 3, count em, 3 summers and nada.  I wanna know who took the signs down and why.

 
Yeah, but at this pace they will have a fully employed road crew out there NEXT summer too. Jobs for construction workers *and* visible progress on our nations infrastructure. All just in time for  the election. I think Obama has it figured just right, the nations attention span/memory is far to short to do anything right now. Look to April  - August of next year for real progress/improvement.
Page: Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next