Lazy8 wrote:
...with a logo set in Comic Sans.

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:

In Sharm El-Sheikh, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned against a "renaissance" of oil, gas and coal. At the same time, he promised more money for the protection of rainforests. More speed and more ambition are needed in the fight against global warming.

Germany wants to double its pledged support for the global protection of rainforests - from one to two billion euros. This was said by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the climate conference in Sharm El-Sheikh, according to the speech transcript. The money is to be invested primarily in protecting the rainforests in the Congo Basin of Central Africa and in the Amazon region.

A.k.a. symbolic politics..

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote: 
1)  Yeah,  What does that mean ?  I'll tell you what that means.  You have a 9 to 10 week supply stashed.  That's it.  Then what ?

German gas storage could quickly empty after a few frosty days - network regulator chief

In finding that factoid I also found that the EU in general is at about 80 % capacity.  Not much when you think in days.

Here in the States we were recently informed that we have a 50 day supply of diesel. No diesel ?  The country stops.  No trucks, no trains, people freeze to death, especially in the Northeast.  Then people starve with no food being shipped.  And our asswhipe of a POTUS has drained our strategic reserve for a political ploy making things even more unsure.

2)  I'm still reading though I find it troubling find the author was an employee of the Wilson Center at the time this was written.  The Wilson Center is at the center of Russian propaganda and disinformation over here.

Once again, I'll raise my primary point that the quickest way to peace is with an abundance of oil.  For a whole host of reasons. Peace through prosperity.  Doesn't look like that will happen anytime soon with Biden once again declaring a fight to the death against the fossil fuel industry.

 black321 wrote:
…oh, good one!

 Lazy8 wrote:
again, not entirely true..   from that Tageschau article (run through DeepL)

Other EU countries even more independent of Russian gas In fact, some EU countries have already become independent of Russian gas faster than Germany. Italy, for example, has concluded gas supply agreements with Algeria, Qatar and Azerbaijan. As a result, the share of Russian gas imports fell to 21 percent of Italy's energy needs. Spain and Portugal are in an even better position; they are largely independent of Russian gas and even supply gas to other EU countries. Spain is playing an increasingly important role in the European LNG market. The Iberian peninsula is home to six LNG terminals. France has also made provisions. The "grande nation" has three LNG terminals. So far, France imports most of its natural gas from Norway - via a direct North Sea pipeline to Dunkerque. Denmark and Sweden are largely self-sufficient in energy.

And the forward prices for natural gas on the TFF trading hub, Europe's biggest exchange are easing constantly, with day ahead prices even becoming negative as a long line of ships are waiting to offload their LNG but confronted by full storage in Europe.


EDIT: more on those negative prices  "Europe's not out of the woods" (yet)

 Lazy8 wrote:
If not nature herself, who may have brought that one about?

 thisbody wrote:
OK, I won't. Not sure what I'd have to say to a headline aggregation site that advertises itself as "Where barflies get together" anyway.

As to NoEnz' point: Germany isn't Europe.  Turkey is at the end of it's economic rope and is busy fashioning a noose out of it, and Britain is seeing considerable political turmoil from rising energy costs. Rising fuel prices are a major talking point for the Tucker Carlson right in the US. This problem isn't solved.

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
Don't tell that to the Moon of Alabama!

 Lazy8 wrote:

Not true for Germany at least.  This links to a German PBS page, but you can scroll down to the chart which needs no explanation. It's from the end of August but I'm pretty sure the situation hasn't changed much. If anything the aversion to Russian sources has got even more extreme since the sabotage of Nordstream 1 and 2.

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
Lest anyone start popping the corks to celebrate European energy independence this is only possible because the pipelines thru Ukraine are still operating. That tap can turn off at any moment, and importing gas by tanker as driven the cost up to crippling levels.

This is a good summation of Ukraine's gas woes, brought about by the familiar issues of a state-owned utility being simultaneously incompetent and corrupt. Ukraine owes Russia a lot of money for its past gas purchases, something that could form the basis of their reparations claim after the war.

 black321 wrote: 

 VV wrote:

Lighten up Francis, no one is upset, it was just a joke.

 black321 wrote:

This is what I posted in response to your previous post:

I guess you must mean the long and storied history of Russian repression. Nope, I don’t think anyone is discounting that at all. In fact I think everyone recognizes it as a primary contributing factor to the current state of affairs.
  
And you are upset by it and saying I am making sh*t up about you? Tell me where the made up sh*t is in that statement? There is nothing personal in it at all. You must have a guilty conscience my friend.

 kurtster wrote:
Well, yes. That's what I was referring to when I said at the back of Putin's cerebellum somewhere.  But I think there is good evidence that oil and gas is not Putin's primary motive. All of the wars on Russia's borders have been about quelling local independence and restoring regimes aligned with Russia. Moreover, the timing of the 2022 invasion closely followed Lukashenko losing the election in Belarus (before getting reinstalled by Russia  - i.e. a refusal to accept an election and getting installed by force - sound familiar?). 

I contend that what Putin is most afraid of is domestic unrest and the encroachment of western democracy. In fact, this IMO is the only prism to view the messages coming out of Russian TV which are an exercise in pure absurdity. So, sure, oil may play some role in his reasoning, but power and control is by far more important to him.  This is also the only rationale that makes sense to him accepting all the downside risks attached with an invasion of Ukraine and holding Europe hostage in terms of oil and gas supplies.  Risks that have now become manifest:

Europe's gas storage is 100% full. There's no way Europe is going to ever rely on Russia for its supplies to the same extent ever again. 
He's lost his conventional army and is now hauling out old WWII stock to send to the front.
Nor can he rebuild his army because of sanctions on essential western parts
He's decimating his population of young fathers and is anyway facing a demographic crisis.
It's possible that up to 700,000 people have fled  Russia 

As for Ukraine.. it is true, like any country going through a massive transition from one-party rule to democracy there was a problem with corruption (Russia has the same issue) and a diversity of political parties jockeying for position. The invasion has changed all that. Putin has made a unified nation out of Ukraine. Another major fail on Putin's part, but Ukraine's gain. 76% of the nation favour fighting until victory,and this after all the losses and damage that the war has caused. They are not going to back down, regardless of what support they get from the west.


btw..  if you feel like reading something to balance out your diet of Tucker Carlson soundbites, you could try reading something like this.

Pope, in Bahrain, condemns rearmament pushing world to 'the brink'

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote: 
Let's look back at the recent history between Russia and Ukraine.  Some of the most important oil and natural gas pipelines run through Ukraine.  Ukraine was in debt up to their ears to Russia because of their inability or unwillingness to pay Russia their gas bill.  I remember the US and others IIRC sending money to Ukraine to help pay off this debt early in Obama's first term.  Ukraine then began stealing gas from Russia.  The pipelines were shut down for awhile, exposing Europe's vulnerability to dependency of Russia for energy in the process.

Also, the corruption in Ukraine is legendary.  Putin's puppet was tossed out of power. Putin seized Crimea while Obama watched and did nothing. Obama gave responsibility over Ukraine to Biden.   Just like Biden gave Harris responsibility of our southern border to Kamala ...  Biden held Ukraine hostage over $1 billion ± to get rid of an investigation involving Hunter and Burisma Energy.  Trump was impeached for sticking his nose in Ukraine regarding the Biden family's business dealings.

But let's get back to the oil.  This is very old news for those of very short memory here since this was hashed over long ago.  Here's some charts and links to peruse.  Then everyone can get back to me and tell me that oil has little to do with any of this ...

Ukraine’s Gas-Fuelled Crisis
Nikki Jones and Will Thornton
Ukraine stands on the brink of civil war and bankruptcy, and energy has been a key factor. Is diversification of supply possible? Is it even a partial solution?This article appeared in Vol. 11, No. 3 - 2014

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:  

I sort of agree...yes Putin is clearly the aggressor.

From Putin's perspective, it was about turning back the clock, returning to being an adversary instead of a partner, rejecting the west, and first and foremost feeling threatened by ukraine turning towards the west, instead of mother russia.  The west played a role over the past 20 years by not accepting this, and continuing to play in his backyard...whether ukraine has the right to choose its own future is not the point (and some did choose russia...an ongoing civil war, donetsk/luhansk). Of course they have the right to choose, but that ignores the geopolitical political risks....which gets us to where we are...an elevated, prolonged war that is seriously disrupting the flow and supply of key commodities, have a deep impact throughout the globe, and especially among impoverished nations.

At this point its seems any arguments about war or not are moot.

 VV wrote:

Was referring to your comment about "Russian repression"  
Perhaps I misunderstood, but that sounded like you were implying I somehow sympathize...

Re. the oil bit, it could be, it could not be.
On the one hand, one might think if it was about oil, why not let Russia take what they want, end this all quickly, and get back to ship oil, wheat,...
On the other, maybe the inside view is that the west is threatened by Putin, and feels he may continue manipulate their vulnerability, reliance on Ukraine/Russian commodities.
Regardless, it's in Europe's backyard, and not some 3rd world southern hemisphere nation , so there is that (sorry to be callous, but that is a reality)

 R_P wrote:

you're making it worse...

 NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
You might have noticed that the projection of weakness is in fashion.