It's got hung parliament written all over it which I think is a good thing because it then means there is a really good chance of electoral reform meaning that Lib dems have a much better (and fairer) chance of actually winning outright.

A most amusing coincidence (in my twisted mind, anyway):  Last night, we were watching the first disc of "Yes, Minister".  Then this morning we were watching Brown's gaffe on the morning news.  Life imitating art in many ways! 

Fools Democracy, make I larf !
If by some perverse fluke the electorate voted in some non mainstream party, we would have tanks on the street just like all the other counties we are so fond of telling how to run their affairs.

An honourable mention for our local constituency in yesterday's Guardian.

The Conservative candidate for Totnes is expressing the sort of doubts not often heard from a politician in the middle of a general election campaign.

"Of course there are times when you have your low moments," says Dr Sarah Wollaston, who will give up her GP practice on beautiful Dartmoor if she is elected. "You wonder why you are giving up the nicest job in the world to do a job where it feels some days that everyone thinks you must be in it for the wrong reasons.  "I can't tell you the difference between knocking on someone's door as a GP and knocking on someone's door saying you'd like to be their MP. Sometimes you feel a wave of hostility."  It is not surprising that there is hostility to candidates, especially the Tory one, in this Devon constituency. The previous incumbent of the seat, the party grandee Anthony Steen, announced his retirement after suggesting amid the expenses scandal that constituents were jealous of his "very, very large house".  Suddenly a majority of almost 2,000 did not feel quite so comfortable for party strategists. The Liberal Democrats are sensing they could cause an upset and Ukip, which can play on the antipathy to all things Europe felt by many of the commercial fishermen and farmers in this area, may also take votes from the Tories, having done well at the European elections here.

Which is why, actually, it might be a good thing that Wollaston, who won the right to stand through the first full open primary (which gave every voter in the constituency, regardless of political persuasion, the chance to be involved in the selection process) does not come over like a polished, old-school candidate.  "Four years ago I'd never been to a political meeting," she says over a cup of tea at the Fishermen's Mission in Brixham. "The disadvantage could be that you have somebody who doesn't know the ropes, doesn't know their way around if they are elected.  "On the other hand I think it's very refreshing. In parliament we have very few people who have a background in medicine, very few people with a background in science. I think that's got to be an advantage. People don't want to have professional politicians who've been through a sausage machine."  Wollaston admits that Steen's comments "haunt this campaign" but she hopes that after the election, politics can move on from the expenses scandal. "I think it's our last chance," she says.

It was thought the expenses furore could also pave the way for independents to do well at this election. Totnes has a couple of interesting ones.

First to Dartmouth, the gorgeous riverine town where the illustrator and cartoonist Simon Drew is to be found. Not surprisingly he is putting his artistic talents to good use in his campaign for the Totnes seat.  People strolling past his gallery smile when they see his cartoon of "Michelangelo's Dave", a photograph of a puzzled-looking David Cameron plonked on to a sketch of the "real" David's muscular body.

He has also produced what must be one of the most beautiful election leaflets: a House of Commons populated by waterfowl, suggesting most MPs are "lame ducks" and recalling the duck house controversy emblematic of the saga.  Drew says he is "disgusted" with the main parties and the lack of choice.  "I decided the best thing I could do was stand myself. I'm finding it very interesting and getting quite a lot of support, I think. It helps having run the shop for 29 years - people know who I am. It helps that I've never been connected to any of the parties before."  If elected he would fight for local issues that have national resonance such as the problems faced by the fishing industry and soaring business rates. He is also a supporter of proportional representation.  "But I've no axe to grind about a particular issue. I just want to be an alternative to the main parties."

Stephen Hopwood, another independent candidate, does have many axes to grind. A complementary medicine practitioner, his literature declares: "I will be standing on the single issue of Truth." (His capital letter.)  "Only independents can truly represent the people," he says. "Any politician signed up to a party by definition has greater allegiance to the party and the whip rather than the people. If people want democracy they have to vote for an independent, otherwise you get party whips and party politics and the influence of the bankers that dictate party policy."  As he talks on the balcony of his home on the edge of Dartmoor, the MI5 renegade David Shayler wanders out. It turns out he is helping Hopwood's campaign. Local issues are not foremost in either man's mind - rather, the "truth" about bankers, globalisation, 9/11 and the assassination of JFK.

The Lib Dem and Ukip candidates are focusing on the local rather than the global. Julian Brazil, the Lib Dem candidate, says he is hearing anger about a lack of investment in the more urban parts of the constituency (that "urban" is a relative term in this bucolic corner of Britain). In the countryside, the issues include affordable housing and lack of jobs. Bovine TB is a big deal for the many dairy farmers.

He believes people are still "very angry" about expenses. "It's a plague on all your houses is how they look at it. They are still going to vote. I hope they can channel that anger into voting for something different."

Brazil is more of a conventional politician. He is leader of the Lib Dem group on South Hams district council and has worked at Westminster with the former leader Charles Kennedy. (His biography also reveals he plays euchre - a card game - for the Pigs Nose Inn in East Prawle.)

He admits he would like to see more independent MPs in the Commons and might even have voted for Drew were he not standing himself. But he's not convinced it pays to be as nice as the Tory candidate obviously is. "Politics is about getting things done, not being a lovely person and making friends. It is, after all, one of the oldest professions."

At the Fishermen's Mission, Wollaston goes off in search of a bacon sandwich (there is not much fish on the menu, which may tell a tale). So is she enjoying it, really?  She sounds a little as if she is still trying to convince herself. "Actually it's very interesting. Every day I have to remind myself this is a really interesting job."  MORE

 MrsHobieJoe wrote: 
Oh see?!, there I go not reading the posts carefully...again!

 Monkeysdad wrote: 

for you too

I think maybe you are talking about the score he got when he did the "who should you vote for test".

Here's a fun one to play with the numbers (it is limited though because it is based on a uniform swing of votes- not tweaked for the regional variations.  Try the BBC for the latest polls .

 MrsHobieJoe wrote: 
Interesting. Those numbers don't jibe with the ones callum posted below.

Mhj...

 sirdroseph wrote: 

These days we start quite a bit further left than you (although all of our parties are quite close to the centre- certainly in European terms) but yes- definitely the Tories for shooting and fox hunting!! 

With 10 days to go I have finally got a jpeg picture of the polls (the conservatives need to clear 40% really for a majority):

 MrsHobieJoe wrote: 

Well, if you your Tories are the equivalent of our right wing conservatives, they are always ready to shoot somebody!

The current split of the vote varies according to the opinion poll, but is around this: 34:29:27:10.  Being: Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Labour, Other (eg SNP, Green, UKIP, BNP, PC).

The irony is that Labour could still come out with the most seats because they have the best spread of votes.  The Tory vote is spread too thickly in many places- they will win many rural seats (eg Surrey/Norfolk) by a country mile and all of those extra votes above a majority of 1 are in effect wasted because they don't get used anywhere else.  The LibDem vote is spread too thinly- they will be second all over the place but that's no use so they will win approx 100 seats on this projection.  On the other hand Labour have wasted fewer votes in Norfolk and Surrey (where virtually no-one will vote for them) and they don't have too many gigantic majorities in their heartland in places like the North East so they could still gain the most seats- but insufficient for a majority in the House of Commons- so deals are almost certianly going to be done.

I know, I know- I'm a geek at heart- this is surprinsingly turning into a very interesting election.  I suspect the Tories will have David Cameron shot at dawn for not getting it in the bag.  One wonders whether any Tories will become converts to proportional representation after this.

Interesting stats from UKPolling Report

PoliticsHome have YouGov's regional figures for the past week here. These are the first properly weighted regional breaks from YouGov on data entirely after the first debate (the data release last week straddled it) and they seem to suggest that the Lib Dem boost is stronger in the North.

The swing from Labour to the Lib Dems in the North-East is 13%, in Yorkshire 11.5% and the North West 9.5. Compare this to the swing in the South East (5%) and London (7%). In Scotland there is very little sign of a Lib Dem advance, with the party on 25% compared to 23% at the last election (though this is still much better than the Liberals were polling in Scotland a few months back).

In the South West, the swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat is 5.5% in this poll, suggesting around 9 Conservative losses to the Lib Dems, rather than the other way around.

On a uniform national swing, the data behind these figures would produce a seat distribution of CON 245, LAB 273, LD 100 - a hung Parliament with Labour the largest party. However, if we do regional swings based on this data, it produces a projection of CON 262, LAB 245, LD 111 - the Conservatives the largest party and an extra 11 Lib Dem seats. The difference is down to the Liberal Democrats gaining more Northern seats (most notably 6 extra in the North east, including all three Newcastle seats) and two extra in the South-West. The Conservatives would gain an extra 20 seats, partially offset by larger losses to the Lib Dems.

Of course, the normal caveats about sample size apply to the regional breaks - with 1000 or so respondents in each region the differences are not necessarily significant. There does seem to be a north-south divide in evidence though.

That would make our local consituency a possible one to swing LibDem HJ- does that impact on your voting thoughts??

Although Gordon Brown did much better in the latest tv debate, Nick Clegg was the clear winner yet again. The best thing of all though was that Cameron fell flat on his arse, brilliant!

 MrsHobieJoe wrote: 
I come out hugely undecisive:

Green Party:

 

45%

Labour Party:

 

44%

Liberal Democrats:

 

43%

Conservative Party:

 

38%
Not hugely helpful.  Personally - I like Cameron, but not his party.  I almost like Gordon Brown, or, at least, I dislike him a lot less than Tony Blair or what some elements of labour seem to have become.  The LibDems seem a good bet, and I like some of their policies, but I'm not sure if they have the impetus to actually do the job.  However, theres no time like the present to find out if I'm right...

On the local scale - I'm in Exeter and it seems likely that Ben Bradshaw will win again, but not impossible that he won't.  I'm hoping that a big student turnout will make a difference, although that could go the way of the Tory candidate since  Exeter uni has such a weird student demographic.

 Inamorato wrote: 
It really could be. After the tv debate, the electoral commission reported a last minute rush of people wishing to vote (you'd be surprised how many people are not registered) and again this is via either afcebook or the lib dems reminding people to do so. (last week when you logged on to FB it gave a direct link to the site to register).



The next tv debate is massive. If the lib dems come out as well as they did the last one, then there is a really great chance of them winning but it's most likely, even at this stage, they are going to get enough votes to cause a hung parliament. If they could just get one big final push before elsetion day then history really would be in the making. To be honest, I'm voting for them because all i've ever known in my lifetime is a conservative or labour and they have both been pretty rubbish to be honest. Also Nick Clegg has admitted he's an aethiest so I feel I could trust him to do things because he thinks they're the correct things to do rather than waht God is advising him too like that religous freak Tony Blair did.

 

Here's an interesting article about Nick Clegg in The New York Times. There is a growing feeling that this election could be history making.

Interesting thoughts geordie and inamorato.  On the religion thing that has to be a vote in Nick Clegg's court for me! (ok- I would vote for the bloody pope if he had the right policies on the economy, education and health).  For me this election has just started to get interesting.  Only 18 days to go and there is no clarity at all on the outcome.

Irritating that even if they all poll at about the same percentage of the vote- labour could well get a majority and the libdems only about 100 seats (out of 600 odd) however in that case the libdems would probably have enough power to move the country to some sort of parliamentary reform- almost certainly involving a move to a variant on proportional representation. 

However that sort of swing could well give us a libdem MP for our local constituency which would be much appreciated by me- the South West of England is a LibDem heartland and currently the sitting Tory (who is AWFUL) has a 2,600 majority.

I guess I had better stop getting excited.  It'll probably all calm down and we'll end up with a small Tory majority.

 MrsHobieJoe wrote: 

Beyond knowing that Cameron married into money, I knew little about his and Clegg's backgrounds so I've done some reading. It turns out that they're both bluebloods with family fortunes of their own. I learned that Clegg has done post-grad study at my alma mater, the University of Minnesota, and is an admitted swordsman (third meaning).

As an example of the differences between the U.K. and the U.S., both Cameron's tepid acknowledgement of the place of religion and Clegg's avowed atheism would prevent their election in the States, which still clings to its Puritan traditions, in word if not in practice.

Maybe in this election the Liberal Democrats will have a shot at actually winning. The way it looks now, though, there will be no majority.

 MrsHobieJoe wrote: 
I think when the tory and labour parties called a tv debate they didn't take into consideration the impact the Lib dems would have. They seem to have grabbed the attention of those that weren't going to vote and also some of those that were still sat on the fence. Also, their policies are much different to the other parties, in fact the tories and labour could be the same party as the differences in their policies is very small, squabbling over petty differences really. I still don't think the lib dems will win but you just never know because there is a massive swing towards them since the tv debate and also huge facebook campaigns. Although the internet has been around a while this is really the first election that has used the internet reach out to those who would not normally take an interest in politics and again, I think the lib dems seem to be benefitting more from this. I know it's a crappy example, but the facebook campaign to get rage against the machine to xmas No 1 worked and now there is a similar campaign to get the lib dems into power and many people seem to be joining that campaign and the lib dems must be loving that kind of exposure.

y Inamorato wrote: 

Funnily enough Clegg comes from a wealthier background than Cameron but the Tories will never be able to shake that whole privilege/silver spoon image unless they totally regenerate themselves.

The opinions polls today are interesting showing a big swing to the LibDems.  Can they hold onto it?  Is it a flash in the pan?  Are people really swayed by an hour of telly or was the problem that the Tories haven't been able to close the deal this time round/ many people are disenchanted with traditional politics and are looking for an alternative. 

Some polling data.

 MrsHobieJoe wrote: 
If the excerpts I saw were any indication, it was pretty tame. I understand the debate to be the first of its kind in the U.K. If so, then the principals knew that the object was not to make a gaffe which, as far as I can tell, no one did. Brown seemed to emphasize his experience in a stay-the-course way, implying that his younger opponents are wet behind the ears. Cameron did his best to convey a "we aristocrats are really just like you" message. Clegg came off as someone who can play with the big boys and made the most of the opportunity.