For what it's worth, partner was listening to an interview with a climate scientist (so knowledgeable and strong believer in climate change) who said that the Maui fires couldn't really be pinned on the climate, unlike the mainland fires. Sorry I don't have a link, however this seems consistent with the rainfall trend data where that part of Maui has seen little change compared to the Big Island.
As scientists weigh the influence climate change may have had in fueling Hawaiiâs wildfires, there isnât one standout factor they point to. Rising temperatures likely contributed to the severity of the blaze in several ways. But global warming could not have driven the fires by itself.
Maui is facing a compound disaster, where many different agents acted together to make the fires so horrific. As human influences on the climate and environment grow, the risk of these disasters is escalating. (...)
For what it's worth, partner was listening to an interview with a climate scientist (so knowledgeable and strong believer in climate change) who said that the Maui fires couldn't really be pinned on the climate, unlike the mainland fires. Sorry I don't have a link, however this seems consistent with the rainfall trend data where that part of Maui has seen little change compared to the Big Island.
Apart from having one of the coolest names for a volcano out there, Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haâapai was a truly amazing eruption. No one expected anything of that intensity from it and it has rewritten the book on shallow submarine eruptions, though there is still some debate as to whether the main force of it was from phreatomagmatic interaction (basically water flashing to steam) or from a more conventional evacuation of a shallow magma chamber. Given the amount of water erupted and the low SO2 I would expect the former but some of the papers I have read suggest it was more the latter as it ejected more Dense Rock Equivalent than Pinatubo for instance. It was a whopper by any measure.
But whatever, yes, over the short-term, volcanic eruptions can explain certain climate outliers, like this year. But over the long-term the effect smooths out and volcanos don't explain the current pace of global warming. Volcanic activity is if anything rather quiet at the moment.
EDIT: List of holocene eruptions.. note that the big eruptions (VEI 6+) are orders of magnitude bigger than the smaller ones (VEI 5 or less). If you then correlate these to the chart from Michael Mann, it is pretty evident that volcanoes don't play any significant role in radiative forcing.
As for aerosol cooling (SO2) from volcanoes the same can be said. The effects wane after ten years or so. You would have to have a truly mega event like an igneous province (Decca Traps, etc.) to see a comparably extreme impact on the climate (in this case cooling) as what we are seeing now (the inverse, warming). And even then, such events unfold over a very long time. What we are witnessing now can only be described as climate shock. A massive sudden change.
"hey earthlings, nothing says you've bad and i'm calling your number like a super volcanic eruption
except maybe when i toss my texas sized asteroid fastball"
As for aerosol cooling (SO2) from volcanoes the same can be said. The effects wane after ten years or so. You would have to have a truly mega event like an igneous province (Decca Traps, etc.) to see a comparably extreme impact on the climate (in this case cooling) as what we are seeing now (the inverse, warming). And even then, such events unfold over a very long time. What we are witnessing now can only be described as climate shock. A massive sudden change.
so we can counter-act global warming by having the right volcano erupt?... does the government know this
Apart from having one of the coolest names for a volcano out there, Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haâapai was a truly amazing eruption. No one expected anything of that intensity from it and it has rewritten the book on shallow submarine eruptions, though there is still some debate as to whether the main force of it was from phreatomagmatic interaction (basically water flashing to steam) or from a more conventional evacuation of a shallow magma chamber. Given the amount of water erupted and the low SO2 I would expect the former but some of the papers I have read suggest it was more the latter as it ejected more Dense Rock Equivalent than Pinatubo for instance. It was a whopper by any measure.
But whatever, yes, over the short-term, volcanic eruptions can explain certain climate outliers, like this year. But over the long-term the effect smooths out and volcanos don't explain the current pace of global warming. Volcanic activity is if anything rather quiet at the moment.
EDIT: List of holocene eruptions.. note that the big eruptions (VEI 6+) are orders of magnitude bigger than the smaller ones (VEI 5 or less). If you then correlate these to the chart from Michael Mann, it is pretty evident that volcanoes don't play any significant role in radiative forcing.
As for aerosol cooling (SO2) from volcanoes the same can be said. The effects wane after ten years or so. You would have to have a truly mega event like an igneous province (Decca Traps, etc.) to see a comparably extreme impact on the climate (in this case cooling) as what we are seeing now (the inverse, warming). And even then, such events unfold over a very long time. What we are witnessing now can only be described as climate shock. A massive sudden change.
Yes, this is recognized as a possible contributing factor to the current extreme. Warm(er) air also holds more moisture. From a link a few posts back regarding SO2 and shipping:
......
In summary, the primary driver of climate change remains CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. The shift to low-sulphur marine fuel triggered by clean air regulations may increase the warming we experience in the near future, but it will not change our long-term trajectory of around 2.6C of warming by the end of the century.
Does the article actually make that case or simply assume it?
The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haâapai (HTHH) volcano erupted 15 January 2022 and injected 146 teragrams of water vapour into the Earth's stratosphere, equal to 10% of the water supply already present in that atmospheric layer. This is known to have a warming effect and some scientists are estimating an increase in surface temperatures of 1.5C over the coming decade. Compared to other volcanoes, relatively little SO2 and ash were emitted.
Yes, this is recognized as a possible contributing factor to the current extreme. Warm(er) air also holds more moisture. From a link a few posts back regarding SO2 and shipping:
Rather, there are a number of other factors likely contributing to current record-warm ocean temperatures. These include the end of a moderate La Niña event at the start of the year and a developing El Niño, a shift which tends to result in higher global temperatures.
Stratospheric water vapour from the 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haâapai volcano and an unusual absence of dust from the Sahara Desert over the tropical North Atlantic may also be helping drive the ocean heatwave.
In summary, the primary driver of climate change remains CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. The shift to low-sulphur marine fuel triggered by clean air regulations may increase the warming we experience in the near future, but it will not change our long-term trajectory of around 2.6C of warming by the end of the century.
The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haâapai (HTHH) volcano erupted 15 January 2022 and injected 146 teragrams of water vapour into the Earth's stratosphere, equal to 10% of the water supply already present in that atmospheric layer. This is known to have a warming effect and some scientists are estimating an increase in surface temperatures of 1.5C over the coming decade. Compared to other volcanoes, relatively little SO2 and ash were emitted.
This natural phenomena could explain current heat records. This is not my field; some of the papers referred to are gated.
Volcanic eruptions like Pinatubo blast SO2 into the stratosphere creating a cooling climate shroud for 1-2 years.
But, Hunga Tonga had only 2% of the SO2 as Pinatubo but a gargantuan amount of water vapor, which is well known to WARM the Earth. The question is how much?
westslope continues: None of this refutes the anthropogenic climate disruption hypothesis but it does provide an alternative explanation for some of the weather recently observed.
