A volcano in the south of Italy could be coming closer to erupting, putting the lives of more than half a million people in danger, an article from Nature Communications has warned.
Scientists believe that magma at the Campi Flegrei volcano in Naples is reaching a level designated by "critical degassing pressure" (CDP). This is characterized by sudden release of water-rich gases in vast volumes, which could lead to rock failure and explosion of the volcano, the report, released late last month, said.
"We propose that magma could be approaching the CDP at Campi Flegrei, a volcano in the metropolitan area of Naples, one of the most densely inhabited areas in the world, and where accelerating deformation and heating are currently being observed," the eight scientists said in the report.
There have been some reawakening signs in Campi Flegrei since the 1950s, from some low earthquake activity to hydrothermal degassing, with a pause in early 2000s. But in 2005, there were new uplifts and further activity has been recorded.
Hi J
yeah that paper caused a bit of a rumble a few weeks ago. Admittedly, it is a bit worrying but these calderas are restless beasts and many of them go up and down like yoyos. In the vast majority of such cases, this movement does not lead to an eruption but, yes, it does look like an eruption could happen in Naples in the next couple of decades, which is indeed really worrying. (yes IN Naples, not next to Naples).
But it doesn't necessarily mean the volcano is going to go ape shit on us. If it erupts, it is most likely just going to be a small new cone like Monte Nuovo which can be handled without loss of life given the proper handling (slightly doubtful given that we are talking about Italy).
As a parallel, look at what happened at Rabaul in 1994. This volcano is very similar to Campi Flegri. They managed to evacuate the town in time and only five people died.
The chance of a big system like Campi Flegri going bat-shit crazy on us is always there, but we haven't been around to witness the precursor signals to really tell what a truly big eruption would look like before it goes off. Most (but not all) large caldera eruptions start with a strong mafic injection into a system that is already primed ready for eruption. In that case there would be a lot of seismic activity to warn the officials. Downside: such mafic intrusions are quite frequent and don't usually tip a system into full scale eruption. Knowing one from the other is the tricky bit. I'm glad I'm not a volcanologist bearing that responsibility. And, yes Naples, like most other caldera systems, has recorded a few of these intrusions recently.
What is kind of new about this paper is that they seem to have found a new parameter for measuring when a system like this might tip into eruption. IF they are right, it could truly be bad news for Naples. (think crumbly cork on shaken champagne bottle... is it just going to leak a bit or give way entirely?). As far as I understand it, the problem is that this is kind of a new science and hasn't really had time to be tested and calibrated against other systems/eruptions to know how indicative these new measurements are of an incipient eruption.
A volcano in the south of Italy could be coming closer to erupting, putting the lives of more than half a million people in danger, an article from Nature Communications has warned.
Scientists believe that magma at the Campi Flegrei volcano in Naples is reaching a level designated by "critical degassing pressure" (CDP). This is characterized by sudden release of water-rich gases in vast volumes, which could lead to rock failure and explosion of the volcano, the report, released late last month, said.
"We propose that magma could be approaching the CDP at Campi Flegrei, a volcano in the metropolitan area of Naples, one of the most densely inhabited areas in the world, and where accelerating deformation and heating are currently being observed," the eight scientists said in the report.
There have been some reawakening signs in Campi Flegrei since the 1950s, from some low earthquake activity to hydrothermal degassing, with a pause in early 2000s. But in 2005, there were new uplifts and further activity has been recorded.
Thunderbirds aye? cool The scary bit for me, is the pressure that must now be placed on the Hikurangi subduction zone, though the last major quake there was 1855 right? i.e. about 160 years on a fault that slips roughly every 500 years or so.. (though I read somewhere that tohoku showed these megathrust quakes are not necessarily subject to just one cyclical pattern but possibly several). A major quake though would likely severely damage the lower NI.
The reporting in this story is spot on. They were in the field with us. Photographer is considered an NZ icon. Russ Van Dissen is a great friend of mine. GNS Science is an incredible group of Kiwi scientists. GEER, "Thunderbirds" is my group!!!
Cheer,
Geo
BTW, as post this Leon Russell "It's a Hard Rain..." playing on main site; I have a story...
The reporting in this story is spot on. They were in the field with us. Photographer is considered an NZ icon. Russ Van Dissen is a great friend of mine. GNS Science is an incredible group of Kiwi scientists. GEER, "Thunderbirds" is my group!!!
Cheer,
Geo
BTW, as post this Leon Russell "It's a Hard Rain..." playing on main site; I have a story...
A Tsunami Watch has been issued for all Hawaiian islands after a large earthquake struck near the Solomon Islands, according to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.
The quake, which struck around 7:38 a.m. HST, measured at a preliminary magnitude of 8.0, the U.S. Geological Survey said. The epicenter was approximately 40 miles west-southwest of Kirakira.
If tsunami waves impact Hawaii, the estimated earliest arrival of the first tsunami wave would be 2:56 p.m. HST.
Details are limited at this time, but the PTWC is investigating the threat to Hawaii.
A Tsunami Watch usually means an earthquake may have created a tsunami, but data is still being verified. It is issued as a precaution and generally indicates that a tsunami may later impact a watch area, according to the PTWC. It may be changed to a warning, advisory or even cancellation based on further analysis.
THE death toll from a powerful earthquake that struck western Indonesia Wednesday has nearly doubled to 97, the military said, as more bodies were pulled from the rubble of scores of shattered buildings.
I was planning a trip for this spring but got busy and scheduling was a problem so it didn't happen. I might have been in Wellington for the quake.
Wellington is a bad place to be in a biggie. I used to think the harbour and soft soils in the Hutt valley are a recipe for disaster but this Kaikoura quake made me wonder if not the entire Wellington basin would be uplifted, reducing the tsunami risk. It still wouldn't be pretty though.
yeah it is - unless you're there while it is taking place
once upon a time i had a severe tequila hangover and was caught inthis
it was like an awful dream...
fortunately we were in puerto vallarta everyone in my group survived to drink again
Wow, that is a huge quake! Must have been scary. Biggest I have been in is a (distant) M6 and I remember watching the walls to the classroom bend over and back several times as I hid under my desk.
cool
