Very good, but I can't help but think that yer men might just have seen Mssrs Bird & Fortune in action - I've just learnt more about the financial crisis of four years ago than in the subsequent four years - and I haven't even seen part two yet.
Location: Still in the tunnel, looking for the light. Gender:
Posted:
Jun 24, 2012 - 3:50pm
NoEnzLefttoSplit wrote:
Very good, but I can't help but think that yer men might just have seen Mssrs Bird & Fortune in action - I've just learnt more about the financial crisis of four years ago than in the subsequent four years - and I haven't even seen part two yet.
It is unfair for critics to ask Germany to bear even more risk. Should Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain go bankrupt and repay nothing, while the euro survives, Germany would lose $899 billion. Should the euro fail, Germany would lose over $1.35 trillion, more than 40 percent of its G.D.P. Has the United States ever incurred a similar risk for helping other countries?
Some critics have argued that Germany, having benefited from the Marshall Plan, now owes it to Europe to undertake a similar rescue. Those critics should look at the numbers.
Greece has received or been promised $575 billion through assistance efforts, including Target credit, E.C.B. bond purchases and a haircut after a debt moratorium. Compare this with the Marshall Plan, for which Germany is very grateful. It received 0.5 percent of its G.D.P. for four years, or 2 percent in total. Applied to the Greek G.D.P., this would be about $5 billion today.
In other words, Greece has received a staggering 115 Marshall plans, 29 from Germany alone, and yet the situation has not improved. Why, Mr. Obama, is that not enough?
Yikes! This is even gloomier than Dr. Doom, who thinks this will transpire in 2013!
Eurodämmerung Paul Krugman on his blog on the NYT May 13, 2012
Some of us have been talking it over, and here’s what we think the end game looks like:
1. Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.
2. Huge withdrawals from Spanish and Italian banks, as depositors try to move their money to Germany.
3a. Maybe, just possibly, de facto controls, with banks forbidden to transfer deposits out of country and limits on cash withdrawals.
3b. Alternatively, or maybe in tandem, huge draws on ECB credit to keep the banks from collapsing.
4a. Germany has a choice. Accept huge indirect public claims on Italy and Spain, plus a drastic revision of strategy — basically, to give Spain in particular any hope you need both guarantees on its debt to hold borrowing costs down and a higher eurozone inflation target to make relative price adjustment possible; or:
4b. End of the euro.
And we’re talking about months, not years, for this to play out.
How come the UK is paying so much to the EU in comparison to other major players (disregarding Germany for the time being)?
Glad you got it to load, I couldn't see it at work at lunchtime. In terms of the uk we are a similar size economy to France and our net contribution is about the same. It is difficult to see as they are absolutes, not percentages of GDP but I think the Netherlands is maybe paying a comparatively healthy whack. Basically the whole exercise of contributions is a big algebra exercise. Also for all the doom and gloom at the stats we do have one of the biggest economies in the world!
It is interesting to remind ourselves that the uk has some pretty heavy financial clout in Europe despite arguably being are marginalised in the recent debates. France is probably in a slightly better position than us because of the common agricultural policy, they are famously largish benefitters from that one.
1) Although shrinking whilst others (those who have read Keynes even if they won't admit it. Hello Angela, Nicholas and Barack) grow.
2) At least they, the French, still have some "common" farmers. The biggest recipients of CAP money here tend to be (as George Monbiot points out here) aristocratic land owners who do err towards a low tax, small government "stand on your own two feet you workshy unemployed layabouts" and anti-European point of view; until it comes to cashing the cheques, that is.
How come the UK is paying so much to the EU in comparison to other major players (disregarding Germany for the time being)?
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Glad you got it to load, I couldn't see it at work at lunchtime. In terms of the uk we are a similar size economy to France and our net contribution is about the same. It is difficult to see as they are absolutes, not percentages of GDP but I think the Netherlands is maybe paying a comparatively healthy whack. Basically the whole exercise of contributions is a big algebra exercise. Also for all the doom and gloom at the stats we do have one of the biggest economies in the world!
It is interesting to remind ourselves that the uk has some pretty heavy financial clout in Europe despite arguably being are marginalised in the recent debates. France is probably in a slightly better position than us because of the common agricultural policy, they are famously largish benefitters from that one.
It's time to start calling the current situation what it is: a depression. True, it's not a full replay of the Great Depression, but that's cold comfort. Unemployment in both America and Europe remains disastrously high. Leaders and institutions are increasingly discredited. And democratic values are under siege.
On that last point, I am not being alarmist. On the political as on the economic front it's important not to fall into the "not as bad as" trap. High unemployment isn't O.K. just because it hasn't hit 1933 levels; ominous political trends shouldn't be dismissed just because there's no Hitler in sight...
I guess I don't understand why Great Britain is so critical to any plan to "save the euro" when they don't even use the currency.
We're not but they wanted to use the Lisbon treaty which is something were all signed up to and the changes being proposed weren't acceptable to us mostly because of the impact on the city of London. Basically the French and Germans wanted to stick a load of stuff in the treaty beyond the euro and our lot wouldn't play ball. Had we had more capable leaders they'd have headed this one off at the pass.
Location: Where the grass is green and the ball is round, meet me in the stand behind the goal. Gender:
Posted:
Nov 30, 2011 - 4:44am
BTW:
The main reason for the ECB to reside in Frankfurt/Germany might be the fact, that this is the most important city for finances in Europe except London.
One issue is that the European Central Bank is based in Germany and is more German than European in outlook in my opinion. A good example of take a very German -centric approach would be the ECB putting UP interest rates TWICE in the summer!
To a large extent it is none of our business as we are not in the Euro but the collateral damage is pretty extensive and I was interested in the view of someone like Prickelpit to give an alternative perspective.
No worries, I am curious for all perspectives myself, especially firsthand ones.
As for example, I did not know the nature of the central bank. That helps me further understand what is going on over there.
We are all intertangled in this muck of which we here share much of the blame as well.
Location: Where the grass is green and the ball is round, meet me in the stand behind the goal. Gender:
Posted:
Nov 30, 2011 - 4:39am
One of the most dangerous problems of the Euro is (and was) the missing balance in European economy. How can we expect Greece or Portugal to play in the same league like Germany and France?
Another point is the lack of common sense of politics in the community. Too many different ideas and countries and the process to find a common way is too slow and too sedate.
In fact Germany has always paid for the smaller countries in the European community. This is definitely ok 'cause those countries have always been the main market for German exports. But now some of the countries struggle and seem to be bankrupt. They used to live over their conditions (rates?). Thy dynamic development we experience right now is a mixture of bad economy and completely wrong fiscal politics in those smaller countries. And of course of the system that allows investors to fire against the countries by betting against their economy. This leads into a maelstrom that will take all countries with it.
I believe that the Euro as we know it will be history in the nearer future....
Angela Merkel is just reacting, never acting. She's selling the financial future of Germany right now.
The big problem is, that even well informed people like me hardly understand the way the markets run. I have no idea wether it's better to install Euro-bonds or not. Or to build a new Euro based on the rich countries (the northern countries in Europe).
I thought the whole point of the Euro was to keep the German Mark from dominating Europe's economy. Evidently it didn't, because Germany is still on top of the old heap after its all said and done. Everyone still keeps turning to Germany for answers and money it seems, from over here.
One issue is that the European Central Bank is based in Germany and is more German than European in outlook in my opinion. A good example of take a very German -centric approach would be the ECB putting UP interest rates TWICE in the summer!
To a large extent it is none of our business as we are not in the Euro but the collateral damage is pretty extensive and I was interested in the view of someone like Prickelpit to give an alternative perspective.
sorry, what is your opinion on the Euro crisis? Is Angela Merkel dealing with it correctly or is she avoiding the problems?
I thought the whole point of the Euro was to keep the German Mark from dominating Europe's economy. Evidently it didn't, because Germany is still on top of the old heap after its all said and done. Everyone still keeps turning to Germany for answers and money it seems, from over here.
brilliant. boy, these guys have got a good handle on the banking mechanisms! Excellent.
