rgio wrote:

...and brag on the internet.

 islander wrote:
Woulda coulda...  I had a crypto wallet set up to buy Ether at $7, and it jumped to $11.   I decided to go ahead, being sure I'd missed the bus, but had trouble with the wallet and was sure I was just going to lose it to some pirate.... so I quit.   

Not a chance in hell I'd still be holding much.... but it would have been a fun ride (knowing it's still gambling and its only use is to fund crime).

 rgio wrote:

I had a chance to buy a fraction of an A in the mid 90's. I bought a motorcycle instead. I had a lot of fun on that motorcycle. This is not investment advice. I can't track all the money I never made, surprising I've done as well as I have.

 islander wrote:
I know a couple who had A shares before the B's were available.  I think they paid ~$60k for them, and it was most of their retirement money at the time.  I'm guessing they still have them... at $736K today. 

I wasn't that smart.  

 rgio wrote:

At first I thought 'research monkey' had a nice ring for a job title, but then I remember how we treat research monkeys.

I had a friend who spent a lot of time and effort trying to mirror Berkshire (following internet advice). I pointed out that a lot of profits had come after his investment (buying in distress and making management changes), and he could save a lot of time and effort and just buy BRK.B and let it ride.

 kurtster wrote:
If I were you, I'd write something catchy like "I'm not your research monkey", but I slept OK and am trying my best to help those in need.

If you have $200, and decided to buy one share of Space X, what happens to the cash involved in the transaction?   Does it become "stock", or at the end of the transaction does the universe still own 1 share of Space X and have $200?  You own 1 share, but someone else has your $200. The pile of cash is the same.  It's merely redistributed.

That pile of cash could go to bonds, real estate, gold, crypto, consumption, or paying down debt. Equities are one of many destinations, they are not a mandatory one. 

On one hand you call me "Captain Obvious" for stating that smart investors are "cashing out" on their AI investments, and then argue that the cash has to go somewhere other than cash?  

Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $400B.  That cash came from buyers spending down their hoard.  Nothing left the system, but the money is now sitting in Omaha.  So no, $8 trillion doesn't have to do anything. The smartest pile of cash on earth is deliberately doing nothing.  

 rgio wrote: 
You keep on saying I'm doing things that I am not doing.  Why do you always do this ?

I wasn't advising anyone. Did I say anywhere that I was advising anyone on anything ?

I just said what I did and how it worked out for me.  It was a personal decision not advice.

What I did do was ask you for your expert advice.  Which you have ignored.
 kurtster wrote: 
So I guess we are done as you have no intention of answering my question.

Alrighty then.

 kurtster wrote:
Sure, sure. I'm just pointing out that here you are again, claiming to have some grand prowess and observational power that none of us can glean. But like all your past examples, they are "l bought at the low", not "I'm buying because I think it's the low".  There is a difference there if you carefully study it.  

You don't have to defend yourself to me, it's wasted effort.  You can try to defend your actions, but your history is clear. How are your grocery prices? How are your gas prices? How do you continue to fool yourself?

 kurtster wrote:
I appreciate that solving intellectual complexities just come easy for some, but for the rest of us, companies like Gartner have built multi-billion dollar businesses to help up make sense of these topics you so deftly handle with Google (while making statements in support of AI).

I didn't realize you were "carefully observing". my bad.   Here's a link to their current one... you should help them out and send them an update explaining why they are so far behind in understanding the market.  https://emt.gartnerweb.com/ngw...

I know you'll take this the wrong way, but buying crypto with credit cards has pretty much invalidated any financial advice you offer.  

 islander wrote:
Stuttering again ?

Sorry, sonny boy.  You pinged me not once, but twice.

You'll get yours's.  You dared me to defend myself, again, as usual, as you love to do.

I've been really busy getting monkeys off my back the past few weeks and am finally getting caught up.  Monkey Management

You would be the next monkey in line.

Ain't no fake financial boasting.  Just speaking the truth ... to power, eh ?

After all, isn't this the thread where all you experts come to boast about your financial prowess ?

Me, I'm here to learn.

 kurtster wrote:

Ddon't bother, I see you always manage to buy the low. So go take your barn find corvette to visit your girlfriend in Canada.  Send us a postcard from the beach. 

no one really cares as long as you continue to take days between posts to come up with your new bullshit. 

fake financial boasting is still preferable to you trying to defend a pedophile. 

 islander wrote: 
I'll get to you next.  You just have to wait for your turn.

 rgio wrote: 

Thank you Captain Obvious.

 

Ignorance =  deliberate willful unawareness, right ?  As opposed to plain just not knowing.  Do I have this correct ?

 
I see your Gartner Hype Cycle.  Never heard of it before now that I can remember.  So last century, eh ?  Just an explanation of the obvious as far as I can tell.  Pure common sense.

I would say that despite all of your expertise and experience, you are behind the curve.  I would say that we are well into the 4th phase, the Slope of Enlightenment at least, based upon my careful observations over time.

Slope of Enlightenment: Practical applications emerge and become more widely understood. More companies begin to grasp how the technology can benefit their specific use cases.

 
So that is my honest question.  Evidently you do not think that an $8 trillion pile of cash is no big deal and has little effect on things.

Did I say that I wanted to keep the rates high ?  Did I mention or complain about Trump ?  No, you did by bringing him unnecessarily into this discussion.

Last summer as I began to digest the portfolio I inherited I was wondering what to do with the T Bills my mom had that were going to mature at the end of September. Fed rates were still falling and so money markets rates dropped as well. 4.5% was OK, but the prospects of 3.5% and less were not.  Where to put the money.  Then I heard that there was $10 trillion sitting in money markets and concluded that falling rates would force this money to go somewhere else. 
...
 Since then $2 trillion has moved out of the money markets and went mostly into equities as far as I can tell and spurred on the return to the Bull Market which was doing rather well until Iran and A I happened.

So the markets are high again at new record levels.  I bought in the dip.  Where is all of this money going to go to next ?  It is kind of hard to buy in at the top, isn't it or so I've been told ?  

Or are the holders of all of these funds going to be complacent and sit tight ?  If all my money was tied up in money markets, of course I would want to see interest rates kept up.  But that wasn't going to happen plus it is poison to the overall economy and the real estate market where quite frankly, is where the Middle Class has most of their assets, not in equities as a rule.  So the rates were coming down and needed to, so in that regard, I agree with Trump. 

You're the expert.  That is why I asked you.

 kurtster wrote:
Finally... a topic you can again share your ignorance without having to say "Trump was wrong".

I know you love paraphrasing... "we don't know what it is yet, but the productivity is going to unimaginable levels?"   That's your lead paragraph?  

See: Blockchain.  We've entered Gartner's "Trough of Disillusionment" for generative AI, but your comments suggest agentic AI remains at the "Peak of Inflated Expectations".   PE isn't going public now because there is so much upside they want to share.

As for interest rates...the Fed is keeping them down?  So you're saying Trump's repeated whining about high interest rates is wrong, and that the Fed should raise the rates even higher?

 kurtster wrote:

this you?
https://radioparadise.com/community/forum/post/3905473

 rgio wrote:
There is always a "bubble" coming.  To judge current events based on past events isn't going to work this time.  The paradigm has shifted and we are still in the process of discovering what "it" actually is.  A I is going to be driving productivity to beforehand unimaginable levels.  Productivity increases are deflationary by their very nature.

You also either forget or ignore that there is around $8 trillion in cash sitting in money markets looking for somewhere to go as they are paying around 3.5% to 4% at best, with the Fed keeping interest rates down.

Is 4% enough to keep these $$'s parked there ?  I do not think so.  And where is that money going to go ?  If not equities, then where ?


No need to answer as that would require having to take me seriously.

ymwv

Carry on.

 R_P wrote:
There is a bubble coming, and the only ones who are going to make money investing in companies are the Venture Capital and Private Equity firms.

Companies used to go to the markets for capital to grow.  Now, if they have a valuable idea, they can get that money from a very small group of people without all of the aggravation of sharedholders, quarterly reporting, etc.  The AI companies are getting private money with valuations in the hundreds of billions.  

Sooner or later, some of those companies will falter.  Before that happens, the PE firms push the company public, take the cash from the retirement funds and pension funds that need a place to put cash, and extract the value out of the company at that moment for personal gain.

FWIW...the top 10% are still doctors and lawyers and mid-level execs paying taxes.  The real money isn't in the markets...it's the 0.01% that own PE firms and their founders, who shelter their incomes from taxes while sucking the vast majority of the wealth out of the system.

Muh stocks! Flunkies invariably drop the 60% stat while omitting that the top 10% own 93% of all stocks

"They're taking advantage of us!" Big Capital FTW.

The coming global food crisis
Hunger and even famine are foreseeable consequences of the war on Iran. Now the world must act to shield the poorest from effects that will continue long after the fighting stops