Seems to me like anybody who makes their living in the polling industry needs to start looking for a new job. Something with a shred of credibility? c.
Seems to me like anybody who makes their living in the polling industry needs to start looking for a new job. Something with a shred of credibility? c.
What more proof do we need than his tweets the last couple days, including this one from this morning, that he is bad for, and a threat to, our democracy?
Don't look now...but PA somehow miraculously found the votes to remove me from office. So corrupt. Georgia too. Arizona....keep up the good work, and make sure all of the votes for the great people of Arizona....and Nevada...are counted. What a clown.
As a side note....STOP THE TESTING! New high in US cases....only because we are testing bigly.
What more proof do we need than his tweets the last couple days, including this one from this morning, that he is bad for, and a threat to, our democracy?
There is so much beautiful irony...karma maybe?...surrounding the election. From John McCain's widow possibly grabbing Arizona away from Trump to the notion that mobs of black votes in GA and PA are going to track down Trump's lead and send the most racist President Andrew Johnson packing...
I love the fact that Fox News imploded the President's plan to claim victory. The idea that Trump State TV went live with a call that A) flipped a Republican stronghold, B) did so long before anyone else, and C) may actually be wrong... is just pure theater.
"If it was true that Arizona was lost, it would call into doubt on any claim of victory the president might be able to make."
Apparently, only half of us learned that everything the president says should be doubted.
âThe only way Biden can win Arizona is through fraud,â said Jim Williams, 67, a welder who attended the protest. âI wonât accept a Biden victory. I donât want to live under Communist rule.â
Regarding the polls, the only one I paid attention to was the Real Politics averages. The actual margins are much tighter than predicted. The forecast Blue Wave did not happen. It was promoted heavily and was intended to scare or demoralize Trump voters.
When it is all said and done Trump got nearly 7 million more votes than in 2016. A 15% ish increase. In spite of the Pandemic and the Impeachment. He was not abandoned. It appears that the repubs keep the Senate. That is key and 70 million people's thoughts are going to be hard to ignore. They are not all White Supremacists, xenophobics and homophobics either. That is what your party wants you to believe. You don't have to listen to them because of who your party says they are. Believe your party and pretend that they are at your own risk. And y'all already know what happens to people who go against your party. Cancelled they are.
ymwv ...
Edit: how timely. I did not see the post below until putting this up. See my bolded ...
The questions many of you should be asking yourselves is how could the pollsters be so very, very wrong again?
This comes up in some form every year. Pollsters have to constantly evolve to try to get a grip on the slippery eel known as The Voter. Can you tell me what benefit there is to being truthful with a poll? If you know you're being polled, wouldn't you benefit more by saying the exact opposite of what's true? Voting for Jones? Tell them you're Voting for Smith. In aggregate, that sort of skew will make Smith voters complacent and Jones voters panic. Both good outcomes. I haven't heard of any organized "gaming" of the system around this, but I wouldn't be surprised to learn that a significant number of people do this, either just to mess with the system, or with this effect in mind.
Unlikely. And probably minute. Also see Prisoner's dilemma (esp. the defector).
All in all, the good news for pollsters is that few, if any, voters are misleading them about their support for Trump. Yes, Morning Consult found small differences in support for Trump via household income and education, with wealthier and college-educated voters less likely to say they support Trump in a live-phone poll, but the shifts werenât statistically meaningful.
The questions many of you should be asking yourselves is how could the pollsters be so very, very wrong again?
This comes up in some form every year. Pollsters have to constantly evolve to try to get a grip on the slippery eel known as The Voter. Can you tell me what benefit there is to being truthful with a poll? If you know you're being polled, wouldn't you benefit more by saying the exact opposite of what's true? Voting for Jones? Tell them you're Voting for Smith. In aggregate, that sort of skew will make Smith voters complacent and Jones voters panic. Both good outcomes. I haven't heard of any organized "gaming" of the system around this, but I wouldn't be surprised to learn that a significant number of people do this, either just to mess with the system, or with this effect in mind.
Things have indeed evolved without changes in the Constitution. There was a time when US Senators were selected by state legislatures. Now it is by direct vote.
Things have indeed evolved without changes in the Constitution. There was a time when US Senators were selected by state legislatures. Now it is by direct vote.
Well that was fun! Of course, the game the Dems are playing is not over yet. I believe Trump will prevail in the end.
The questions many of you should be asking yourselves is how could the pollsters be so very, very wrong again? What shenanigans are occurring in the battleground states, and are you totally cool with that, so long as your guy wins? What about those big Senate races where the R incumbents were to be blown out of the water by the hundreds of million$ thrown against them â and yet they eek out the crazy victory of double digit percentages!
Are you really paying attention? If you are, everyone, whether R or D should be very concerned.
The US constitution favours the current political party duopoly. The constitution will not change.
It doesn't need to change for ranked choice voting to be implemented by states and communities.
Hmm. Maybe I should hear/read more about this.
Things have indeed evolved without changes in the Constitution. There was a time when US Senators were selected by state legislatures. Now it is by direct vote.
